http://archive.aweber.com/decarleystockThe Stock Index Report compliments of DeCarley Trading, daily market commentary and recommendations.Mon, 21 May 2012 12:00:56 -0400http://archive.aweber.com/decarleystock/BgSdk/h/DeCarley_Trading_made_the.htm Most swing traders utilize the traditional strategy of buying or selling futures contracts at support and resistance levels, respectively, with the use of stop loss orders for risk management. However, I believe the use of stop orders is deeply flawed. Markets have a tendency to cause the most pain to the most people, and that often entails bouts of stop loss running before trend reversals. Nonetheless, there are ways to alleviate the wrath of stop running to give your trades lasting power. As an alternative to a stop order, traders can effectively purchase insurance against their price speculation in the futures market using long calls and puts. For instance, by definition a put option is the right to sell a futures contract at a specific price (the strike price), at a specific date in the future. Therefore, the purchase of a put option with a strike at or below the entry of a long futures contract is essentially limiting the risk of the trade to the amount paid for the option, plus any gap between the futures entry price and the strike price of the option. Let's take a look at an example.... Click to READ MORE and to view the accompanying video! www.DeCarleyTrading.com 1-866-790-TRADE(8723) info@decarleytrading.com www.CurrencyTradingthebook.com *There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures, options and FOREX. Mon, 21 May 2012 12:00:56 -0400http://archive.aweber.com/decarleystock/7un1./h/Carley_Garner_interviewed_by.htm Carley on Your Money Matters Click here to listen Carley Garner was recently interviewed by the nationally syndicated Your Money Matters radio show! Your Money Matters is hosted by Marc Pearlman, a popular market commentator. On the show, Marc and Carley discuss topics covered in her latest book, Currency Trading in the FOREX and Futures Markets, along with general ideas on getting started in derivitives trading. www.DeCarleyTrading.com www.CurrencyTradingtheBook.com 1-866-790-TRADE(8723) *THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX. Unsubscribe Mon, 07 May 2012 17:08:05 -0400http://archive.aweber.com/decarleystock/Biph./h/Join_us_for_Diversifying_with.htm Currency Option Trading: Diversifying with the Dollar Index When: May 9th at 3:30 PM Central Where: Online, hosted by SFO Magazine What: A closer look at the ETF of the futures trading world and how traders might use it as a tamer speculative vehicle or a means of diversification How: Click here to register for Currency Option Trading Forex traders have developed creative techniques aimed at hedging their currency holdings, but perhaps the most efficient form of diversified currency trading is through the U.S. Dollar Index traded on the InterContinental Exchange. Join Carley Garner for a brief discussion of FX hedging techniques and the benefits of trading the ETF of the futures markets. Click here to register for this FREE trading education event www.CurrencyTradingtheBook.com DeCarley Trading 1-866-790-TRADE(8723) info@decarleytrading.com www.DeCarleyTrading.com *THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FOREX, FUTURES AND OPTIONS! Thu, 03 May 2012 15:31:53 -0400http://archive.aweber.com/decarleystock/IUx9Q/h/Trade_Futures_and_Options_in.htm TRADE FUTURES AND OPTIONS IN YOUR RETIREMENT ACCOUNT WITH DECARLEY TRADING We've recently been made aware of the fact that many options and futures brokerages, particularly discount brokers and stock brokers (offering commodities on the side), do not accept qualified retirement accounts. However, it is possible to trade an IRA, a Roth, or rollover 401(k) with DeCarley Trading! The process of setting up and opening a retirement account to trade futures and options is a bit different than that of a traditional account but we've streamlined the process to make it as simple and efficient as possible. If you are interested in learning more about trading futures within a retirement account, click here. If you would like an application to open an account to trade futures and options within your qualified retirement plan, click here. Whether you choose discount online trading, or broker assisted, you will have access to the state of the art platform of your choice, click here for details. *Please note that DeCarley Trading does not recommend traders allocate their entire retirement account to speculative trading as risky as futures and options. Instead, clients should limit such trading reserved for a small to moderate percentage of their overall savings. Visit www.CurrencyTradingtheBook.com for information on Carley Garner's new book. DeCarley Trading info@decarleytrading.com 1-866-790-TRADE(8723) 702-947-0701 www.DeCarleyTrading.com *THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS!Wed, 11 Apr 2012 13:09:07 -0400http://archive.aweber.com/decarleystock/65dLQ/h/Let_s_talk_about_the.htm The Goal of Trading should be to MAKE Money, not to SAVE Money! Click here to view Carley's Stocks and Commodities Magazine column on this topic. Everyone knows that commission is baggage; mathematically, every dollar spent on transaction costs directly reduces profits and increases losses but there is more to commission than math. For instance, traders paying highly discounted rates are given incentive to over trade and there is much more money to be lost by overzealous trading than there is in paying for a quality service. Similarly, if quality market research and trading recommendations can shorten the trading learning curve, or save traders from themselves...an extra dollar or two in commission might avoid thousands of dollars in costly market mishaps. With discount futures brokers you get what you pay for: Limitations, or high margin, for option selling Heavy handed margin clerks for option sellers (unnecessary forced liquidation can be costly) Limitations on products offered Automatic account liquidation at 3:00 pm Central (day trading) Inexperienced support staff (clerks, not brokers) Little or no education or trader support, you are on your own If you are trading with a discount firm, but are still losing money...maybe it's time to try something different. With DeCarley Trading, we believe you will receive what you pay for and more; including but not limited to: DeCarley Trading newsletters (Bond Bulletin, Stock Index Report, DeCarley Perspective) and trading recommendations (primarily short option trades in energies, currencies, grains, Treasuries and stock indices), The Hightower Report commodity newsletter, and other helpful research Minimum span margins for all account sizes and trading strategies (option selling included) Forced liquidation is a last resort to prevent accounts from losing more than is on deposit, but it not a day to day risk management tool Access to ALL U.S. futures and options, and most of the popular overseas products Experienced brokerage staff, friendly, helpful and efficient support And much more...(see link below for specific service levels and rates) Click here to view Carley's Stocks and Commodities Magazine column on futures trading commission rates and services Click here to view the commission schedule (Online Pro rates start at $7 round turn plus fees and go down from there for qualified accounts), if you would like to see a description of each service level, click here. To open a trading account with DeCarley to utilize our state of the art trading platforms or trade a full service account, click here and complete an online application. DeCarley Trading www.DeCarleyTrading.com 1-866-790-TRADE(8723) 702-947-0701 info@decarleytrading.com *THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES, FOREX AND OPTIONS! Thu, 29 Mar 2012 13:15:04 -0400http://archive.aweber.com/decarleystock/POLkQ/h/Last_chance_to_register_for_a.htm Currency Option Trading: FOREX vs. Futures When: March 22nd, 2012 @ 3:30 pm Central Where: Online What: A look at various currency option venues with Currency Trading author, Carley Garner How: Click here to register for Currency Option Trading Option trading provides the opportunity to manage risk, and create a strategy that conforms to the individual personalities and risk tolerance of each trader. However, currency traders have more options than traders in other asset classes. Before it is possible to become proficient in trading options, you had better take the time to fully understand each trading venue and currency; only then will you be able to determine which will be optimal for your trading strategy and style. FOREX Options vs. Futures Options Vanilla options or exotic? Being aware of currency option liquidity Picking markets, picking strikes and picking trades And more Click here to register for this FREE trading education event www.CurrencyTradingtheBook.com DeCarley Trading 1-866-790-TRADE(8723) info@decarleytrading.com www.DeCarleyTrading.com *THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FOREX, FUTURES AND OPTIONS! Tue, 20 Mar 2012 10:29:06 -0400http://archive.aweber.com/decarleystock/6xCxg/h/Join_us_for_a_complimentary.htm Currency Option Trading: FOREX vs. Futures When: March 22nd, 2012 @ 3:30 pm Central Where: Online What: A look at various currency option venues with Currency Trading author, Carley Garner How: Click here to register for Currency Option Trading Option trading provides the opportunity to manage risk, and create a strategy that conforms to the individual personalities and risk tolerance of each trader. However, currency traders have more options than traders in other asset classes. Before it is possible to become proficient in trading options, you had better take the time to fully understand each trading venue and currency; only then will you be able to determine which will be optimal for your trading strategy and style. FOREX Options vs. Futures Options Vanilla options or exotic? Being aware of currency option liquidity Picking markets, picking strikes and picking trades And more Click here to register for this FREE trading education event www.CurrencyTradingtheBook.com DeCarley Trading 1-866-790-TRADE(8723) info@decarleytrading.com www.DeCarleyTrading.com *THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FOREX, FUTURES AND OPTIONS! Fri, 09 Mar 2012 11:43:06 -0500http://archive.aweber.com/decarleystock/GrcKg/h/How_to_use_the_COT_Report_in.htm See DeCarley Trading in the February 2012 month's issue of Currency Trader Magazine Complimentary download of the magazine, and DeCarley Trading article, Avoiding FX Trading Mishaps with the COT Report, click here. Most FOREX traders turn to technical analysis for help in forming opinions regarding upcoming price moves; others are number crunchers who prefer to use fundamental data such as GDP, interest rate differentials and inflation data. Nonetheless, perhaps the most accommodating form of analysis is the less discussed study of trader sentiment and the identification of overcrowded trades. Many wise traders have stated, In the end, it isn't how much you made, it is how much you didn't lose. Simply put, traders work hard to amass profits in the challenging FX markets but being in the wrong place at the wrong time, and worse, being unprepared for that scenario, can potentially wipe out all of the gains, and more, that you've worked so hard for. In this article, we discuss using the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) Commitments of Traders Report (COT) to identify overheated trends, possible reversals, and knowing when being on the sidelines is the best position. DeCarley Trading 1-866-790-TRADE(8723) www.DeCarleyTrading.com www.CurrencyTradingtheBook.com *THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS! Mon, 27 Feb 2012 17:55:09 -0500http://archive.aweber.com/decarleystock/HWYVA/h/Join_us_for_FOREX_Trading.htm FOREX Trading Math: Fractions, Decimals, Quotes and Your Money! When: February 16th, 2012 @ 3:30 pm Central Where: Online What: Getting to know FOREX with Currency Trading author, Carley Garner How: Click here to register for FOREX Trading Math Perhaps the most intimidating aspect of trading currencies in the FOREX market is the complex mathematics required to calculate profit, loss, and risk. With the convenience of modern trading platforms, the grunt work is done for traders automatically but that doesn't mean traders shouldn't have a full understanding of how the numbers they see on their statements, and in their trading platforms, are derived. Join us to discuss in detail the following topics: Mechanics of pairs trading Calculating pips and profit Calculating and understanding margin and leverage What does a quote of $1.3225 in the Euro REALLY mean The new pip...dealing in fractions of a pip within a trading platform And more! Click here to register for this FREE trading education event www.CurrencyTradingtheBook.com DeCarley Trading 1-866-790-TRADE(8723) info@decarleytrading.com www.DeCarleyTrading.com *THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FOREX, FUTURES AND OPTIONS! Tue, 14 Feb 2012 09:40:57 -0500http://archive.aweber.com/decarleystock/8YTnw/h/We_rarely_recommend_shorting.htm Today's Commentary... *All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. February 8, 2012 Click here to sign up for our next Free trading webinar...FOREX Trading Math! See DeCarley Trading's article on using the COT for FOREX analysis in this month's issue of Currency Trading Magazine (Click here for free electronic download). We rarely recommend shorting a futures contract but... Rather than going on and on about the day's action and trying to assess why prices behaved the way they did, we are going to go in a different direction....NASDAQ futures. Thanks to high flying stocks such as Apple, the NASDAQ 100 futures contract has been quietly creeping higher despite widespread skepticism over the tech sector. Also, few have forgotten the infamous tech bubble in which the shorts were massacred on the way up and the bulls on the way down...not many survived. Accordingly, it is often the forgotten index. Nonetheless, it might offer traders the bears the best opportunity in regard to high probability trades and potential reward. Large speculators are currently (or at least according to the latest COT Report) holding a record net long position in the e-mini NASDAQ (NQ) of 108,650 contracts. The previous record was set in late 2004, at 95,765; in light of this we think it is fair to say the long tech trade is overcrowded. Although the e-mini SandP is technically overbought, it isn't experiencing a massively one sided position like the NASDAQ is. From a technical standpoint, the March NASDAQ future currently has an RSI reading of over 90%. If you are familiar with the RSI, you are aware that it is among the slower of the oscillators to suggest a market is overheated and anything over 70% in is considered to be extreme pricing. Needless to say, the current 90% value is screaming overbought. This alone doesn't guarantee the market will turn the corner (after all, nothing does) but in my 7.5 year career I've only encountered such an extreme rally a handful of times. Also, NASDAQ futures have traded lower in only 3 of the previous 26 sessions, and the red closes were modest. As we know, extreme prices are often followed by mean revision trade in which the market corrects from an overextended level to an equilibrium...and that is what we feel the NASDAQ could soon be doing. We typically recommend short options, or even long options, simply because the risk are lower and there is much more room for error. However, given the circumstances we are willing to go out on a limb and recommend selling the NQ futures contract at the current level (near 2540). The next resistance is near 2562, so traders with plenty of margin might consider adding at that price. Similarly, conservative traders might try to hold out for a possible move to 2560ish before entering the initial position. Our initial downside target will be about 2450 in the March contract. If you are trading the SandP, our intraday support and resistance models continue to work well (despite the fact that we got bearish too early). Look for resistance in the March SandP near 1352 and then again at 1365ish; resistance lies near 1340 (soft), 1336 and then 1328. Daily support falls at 1307 should we get a watershed move. * Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software. **Seasonality is already factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action. Please note: An e-mini SandP and e-mini NASDAQ chart are used because they better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized SandP or the mini. Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version. Futures and Options Trading Recommendations **There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading Position Trade - 1-18 We recommended that clients sell the March SandP 1370 calls for about $9.00 in premium or $450 per mini contract. In other Markets... 1-17 Clients were instructed to sell a March futures contract near 123'20 and to purchase a June 123.5 call option as insurance. This trade offers limited risk and unlimited profit potential. 1-23 Clients were advised to lock in a profit on the short 5-year note futures contract near 123. Depending on fill prices, this leg of the trade netted about $550 to $600 per contract before transaction costs. We are still holding the long call that was purchased for protection. 1-23 - Clients were recommended to sell the March Bond 134 puts for about 29 ticks, or $453. 1-23 - Clients were advised to sell March Euro strangles. It was recommended that those holding long 137 calls (as a flyer just in case of a short covering rally) sell the 136.5/123 strangles for about 69 ticks or $862.50. Traders without this long call, sold either the 138/122 strangle or the 127.50/122 strangle for about 44 ticks or $550. 1-25 - Clients were advised to buy back their short 134 puts for about 13 ticks prior to the Fed announcement. Assuming an entry of 29 and exit of 13, the profit was $250 per contract before commissions. 1-25 - It was recommended that our clients re-sell the 5-year note futures contract (bought back at a profit on Monday, see above) near 123'23. In light of the profit on the first entry, this is now nearly a free trade (ignoring transaction costs and slippage), limited (almost no) risk and unlimited profit potential from here. 1-25 - Clients were advised to sell March strangles using the 137 puts and the 147 calls for about 47 ticks or $735. 1-26 - We recommended that clients offset their long March Euro 137 calls near 40 ticks to lock in a profit of about $250 per contract. This leaves our short strangle unhedged. 1-30- Clients were advised to buy back their 137/147 bond strangles, for a small loss and replace the premium by selling the 140/149 strangles...to give the market a little bit of breathing room. 2-3 - Clients were advised to buy back their 147 calls to lock in a profit on that side of the trade. Fills were reported near 7 ticks, depending on client entry this was a profit of anywhere from $230 to $312 per contract. 2-3 - Clients were recommended to buy their 140 puts back at a small loss ( about $230 per contract) and sell a 139/145 March strangle to replace the premium for about 1'04 ($1,062.50). 2-7- We advised our clients to buy back their short 122 and 123 puts in the Euro to lock in a profit on that leg of the trade. We are still holding the short Euro call portion of the trade. Profits on the 122 puts ranged from $212.50 to $250, most made about $300 on the 123 puts. 2-8 - Clients were advised to sell the March Euro 137 put for about 31 ticks to convert the naked calls back into a strangle. (Our clients receive short option trading ideas in other markets such as gold, crude oil, corn, soybeans, Euro, Yen, and more. Email us for more information) Carley Garner Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker DeCarley Trading cgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com 1-866-790-TRADE Local : 702-947-0701 http://www.facebook.com/decarleytradingcommoditybroker http://twitter.com/carleygarner http://www.linkedin.com/in/carleygarner http://www.DeCarleyTrading.com http://www.ATradersFirstBookonCommodities.com *Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely. There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. About Us... Proud Members of: Wed, 08 Feb 2012 17:06:55 -0500