The Duel of the Century, or Co-evolution?

I've just finished reading what is by far the best book I have read this year, Henry Kissinger's On China.

Kissinger is probably the most experienced statesman of our times, and he is as well a perceptive analyst and a very fine writer, and his topic, China, does not lack for interest either.  The combination makes for compelling reading.

For it's clear that the relationship between the US and China is likely to be a key driving force in the world economy and its politics throughout the first half of the 21^st century, if not beyond.

And from our perspective today, we can see two quite different options for the future.  The idea of the "duel of the century" is a phrase taken from Chinese PLA Senior Colonel Liu Mingfu, who is also a professor at China's National Defense University.  Kissinger offers detailed analysis to Liu's viewpoint, and agrees that a difficult and protracted duel is certainly a possibility.  But he also explores the possibility of a much different sort of relationship between the two superpowers, the notion of co-evolution, wherein both countries "pursue their domestic imperatives, cooperating where possible, and adjust their relations to minimize conflict"  (p. 526) in the context of a Pacific Community.

As events unfold in the coming decades, they will do so in a situation where both sides are under increasing pressures.  As Kissinger points out, "Part of China's spectacular growth [in recent decades] was attributable to its good fortune that there existed a fairly easy correspondence between China's huge pool of young, then largely unskilled labor - which had been 'unnaturally' cut off from the world economy during the Mao years - and the Western economies, which were on the whole wealthy, optimistic, and highly leveraged on credit, with cash to buy Chinese-made goods.  Now that China's labor force is becoming older and more skilled (causing some basic manufacturing jobs to move to lower-wage countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh) and the West is entering a period of austerity, the picture is far more complicated."  (p 524)

Indeed, China's economy is much different than it was when this boom started in the 1990s.  Each year, about 25 million people move from rural China to its cities, looking for jobs and housing, and so far the nation has been able to accommodate most of them.  But imagine the economic dynamism that's needed to build the equivalent of building a New York metro area every year (18 million), and throwing in a Chicago to boot (8 million), and one has to wonder how long this can be sustained, given that the other nations of the world have less capacity now to absorb Chinese exports due to their own continuing economic struggles.

The US, meanwhile, is grappling with its own severe economic difficulties, as well as a growing political divide that some worry could well be the leading acts of an agonizing decline.

Despite their struggles, both countries will be the dominant military powers in the world for the foreseeable future, and both have distinct self-images as exceptional nations, nations that have a broader purpose on the world stage.  For China, 2500 years of cohesive national existence have served only to reinforce the idea that China is the center of civilization, while the US, a relative child at 235 years, sees itself as the world's beacon of liberty, democracy, and capitalism.

How will the two accommodate each other's needs and interests as they come under increasing distress?  There are no easy answers, and Kissinger does not propose that there are, but the depth of his analysis and the clarity of his writing will surely add to your own understanding of this mighty rivalry, which is so central to all of our futures.

Kissinger presents a fine overview of Chinese history in addition to his analysis of the current situation.  If you would like to add a more personal perspective on recent Chinese history, some other books that you may enjoy include Balzac and the Little Chinese Seamstress, by Chinese expatriot Dai Sijie, which tells the author's story of his experiences during China's Cultural Revolution.  It is a graceful and tender memoir that you may also see in cinema some time soon.

Another fine Chinese writer, also an expatriot, is Qiu Xiaolong, whose series of mystery novels about Shanghai detective Chen Cao describe the stunning social, political, and economic changes of the 1990s in China through the eyes of mid-level policeman. The writing is also perceptive and very sensitive, and the subtlety of the social analysis is unmistakenly masterful.  There are many titles in this series, but I suggest that you begin with the first, The Death of a Red Heroine, as the stories build progressively.

If you wish to journey further back into Chinese history, and to grasp the depth of commitment and struggle that the early Chinese Communist leaders endured, consider Harrison Salisbury's The Long March, a compelling depiction of the protracted battle between the Communists and Nationalists before World War II.

The development of the Chinese economy is not an idle pursuit for us at InnovationLabs.  We have partnered for the last 3 years with Shanghai's China Institute for Innovation to bring advanced training in innovation principles and methods to Shanghai, Bejing, and a handful of additional cities. 

We've also worked successfully with many companies in China, including the Chinese operations of multinationals such as France Telecom, Bayer, Alcatel, Kone, and General Electric, as well as Chinese companies including Haier, Li-Ning, COFCO, and many others. Through this work, we have come to appreciate the pleasures and complexities of life and work in China, and we have made many friends of whom we are very fond.

As a result of these experiences, and most recently, InnovationLabs has signed an agreement with the Chinese government through which we have become the "official and exclusive supplier of innovation training" to the Chinese government and its powerful state-owned companies. 

Beginning in early 2012 we will be offering three innovation training programs in China, Certified Innovation Manager^(TM), Certified Innovation Professional^(TM), and Certified Chief Innovation Officer^(TM).  An overview of these programs is available on our web site, and we're now in the process of translating all of the materials into Chinese in preparation for next year's debut. Our latest book, The Innovation Master Plan, will be a central text book for this program.

Once these programs are up and running in China, we will work to make them available elsewhere, including of course North America and Europe, as well as in the major developed and developing nations of the world.

As all of this unfolds, we will therefore have a front row seat in the continuing saga of the relationship between the US and China, and in our modest way we may also be able to influence the path toward co-evolution, as we work to build stronger ties of knowledge and expertise that will hopefully draw the two peoples together.

 

Notes:   

The photo shows Shanghai at night, taken from the top of the Shanghai World Financial Center, and shows Jin Mao Tower, the Oriental Pearl communications tower, the Huangpu River, and Shanghai's famous Bund district.