
Monthly Newsletter for month ending 18th June 2011 |
| Introduction - Volume: 9 - Issue06 | |
Dear
We
apologize for the delay in publishing the newsletter, this was due to some
technical difficulties uploading the pdf files to the website.
At the
end of May, bank
profits were reported as rising substantially in the first quarter with
institutions reporting their best quarterly results since the second quarter of
2007. This is despite the number of
problem banks in the U.S.
continuing to rise. In international
economic news, the leaders of the Group of Eight nations ended their summit Deauville, France,
saying relatively little about the economic challenges they face other than
that the global economic recovery was gaining strength and becoming more
self-sustained whist warning that downside risks remained. The G-8 singled out the sharp rise in
commodity prices as a headwind to the recovery
In the US, job gains
slowed to a crawl in May, and the unemployment rate moved higher. Nonfarm payrolls rose by a seasonally
adjusted 54,000, the smallest gain since September and a fraction of the
125,000 jobs expected by economists. In
the housing market, U.S.
home prices fell in March for the eighth straight month, confirming the
beleaguered housing market has entered a double-dip recession. The Case-Shiller 20-city home-price index
dipped below its April 2009 trough, meaning that home prices have fully
retreated from the gains posted from May 2009 through June 2010.
Still
with housing news, at the beginning of June, the values on the country's most
modestly priced homes took a harder hit than their upscale counterparts during
the downturn. Houses priced at the low
end of housing markets typically fell about three times more than those at the
upper end in the last year, according to reports.
Last
week, as fears stirred by Greece's
deepening debt crisis raced through global financial markets, a quick check of U.S. banks
showed they risk losses of tens of billions of dollars should the Mediterranean
nation default on its payments. U.S. banks had total exposure of $41 billion to Greece by the
end of 2010 although most of the commitments appeared to be indirect.
In
company news there were highs and lows: J.C. Penney Co. shares saw their
biggest single-session percentage gain in at least 10 years after the midmarket
department-store operator surprised investors with an executive coup, hiring
Apple's retail-store chief, Ron Johnson, as its new CEO. Johnson, senior vice president of retail at
Apple for the past 11 years, was credited with pushing the iPod and iPhone
manufacturer's retail presence to its approximately 323 stores in the United States
and abroad. For the lows, more investors
threw in the towel on Research In Motion Ltd. after the company's latest
disappointing report, with half a dozen brokers downgrading the stock and more
scaling back their price targets. The
stock's 24% drop for the week put the shares at a record-low valuation.
Anacott
subscribers saw a quiet expiration with two positions having calls that expired
worthless and one position assigned. AOL
Inc. a Covered call conservative position was assigned for a profit of 47.21%
annualised. Full details on all these
positions can be seen in the newsletter or on our website.

Graham J O'Connor - President
Anacott Investments LLC
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| Market Summary | |
The
DOW opened at 12,511.29 on 23 May 2011 and closed at 12,004.36 on 17 June 2011,
a decrease over the period of 4.22%.
The
Nasdaq Composite opened at 2,761.96 on 23 May 2011 and closed at 2,616.48 on 17 June 2011,
a decrease over the period of 5.56%.
The
S&P 500 opened at 1,333.07 on 23 May 2011 and closed at 1,271.50 on 17 June 2011,
a decrease over the period of 4.84%.
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| Economic Month Ahead | Tuesday 21 June 2011
10:00 AM Existing home sales
Thursday 23 June 2011
08:30 AM Jobless claims
10:00 AM New home sales
Friday 24 June 2011
08:30 AM Durable goods orders, GDP
Monday 27 June 2011
08:30 AM Personal income and outlays
Tuesday 28 June 2011
10:00 AM Consumer confidence
Wednesday 29 June 2011
10:00 AM Pending home sales index
Thursday 30 June 2011
08:30 AM Jobless claims
Friday 1 July 2011
09:55 AM Consumer sentiment
10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, Construction spending
Thursday 7 July 2011
08:30 AM Jobless claims
Friday 8 July 2011
08:30 AM Employment situation
Tuesday 12 July 2011
08:30 AM International trade
Wednesday 13 July 2011
08:30 AM Import and export prices
02:00 PM Treasury budget
Thursday 14 July 2011
08:30 AM Producer price index, Retail sales, Jobless claims
Friday 15 July 2011
08:30 AM Consumer price index
09:15 AM Industrial production
09:55 AM Consumer sentiment
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| Benchmark Portfolios |
These
portfolios were set up on 1st January 2005 and are operated exactly the way our
subscribers operate their accounts. The returns are shown NET of OptionsXpress
commission rates. Each portfolio was set up with the following parameters:
Equity LEAPs: $50k and up to 10 positions
Positions: DELL, HPQ, MSFT, CVS, MRK, GILD, LOW, FCX, TGT
Basis Date: 1/1/2005 Market Value: $ 31,542.00
Starting Basis: $50,000.00 Total Income: $4,178.20 Cash on Hand: $ 3,436.11
Return on Account: -30.0% Total Value: $ 34,978.11
INDEX LEAPs: $50k and up to 4 positions
Positions: XLK, GDX, SMH
Basis Date: 1/1/2005 Market Value: $ 43,776.00
Starting Basis: $50,000.00 Total Income: $ 10,326.30 Cash on Hand: $ 8,171.33
Return on Account: 3.9% Total Value: $ 51,947.33
Covered Calls - Conservative: $50k and up to 5 positions
Positions: UTSI, SPLS, MSFT, SVU, GLW
Basis Date: 1/1/2005 Market Value: $ 39,977.00
Starting Basis: $50,000.00 Total Income: $ 2,880.15 Cash on Hand: $ 10,887.18
Return on Account: 1.7% Total Value: $ 50,864.18
Covered Calls - Aggressive: $75k and up to 5 positions
Positions: CWTR, CSCO, MRVL, TLM, MXIM
Basis Date: 1/1/2005 Market Value: $ 73,961.00
Starting Basis: $75,000.00 Total Income: $ 2,775.35 Cash on Hand: $ 36,778.91
Return on Account: 47.7% Total Value: $ 110,739.91
To view the Benchmark portfolio performance charts, please CLICK HERE
You will need Adobe Acrobat reader to view the charts, you
can get a free copy by clicking HERE
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| Current Open Positions Summary |
To view the monthly analysis sheet for all our services
please CLICK HERE
You will need Adobe Acrobat reader to view the charts, you
can get a free copy by clicking HERE
|
| Customer Emails | My husband and I also have an account at OptionsXpress. Can I set up autotrade with them as well?
Dear Josie
Firstly please let me welcome you as a new customer.
You are able to trade our suggestions through OptionsXpress, we have full details on how to set up an account with OptionsXpress for auto-trading at http://www.anacott-investments.com/investment/broker_setup.asp?bid=100014 . If, after reading these instructions you require further help then please do not hesitate to contact us again.
Best Regards
T Stubbs - Anacott Customer Service Team
Which of the 4 strategies you employ can be used with retirement accounts through OptionsXpress? Thanks. Don
Dear Don
Thank you for your enquiry.
All of our 4 strategies can be used with retirement accounts through optionsXpress.
We hope that this has helped, however, if you require further information please do not hesitate to contact us.
Best Regards
E Robinson - Anacott Customer Service Team
I am considering Autotrading. What is the MAXIMUM size account if I wanted to autotrade covered calls?
Dear Steve
Thank you for your enquiry.
There is no maximum account size for our Covered Call services. We generally select positions that have adequate liquidity and open interest.
We hope that this has helped, however, if you require further information please do not hesitate to contact us.
Best Regards
E Robinson - Anacott Customer Service Team
Hi, I opened a subscription yesterday and had some questions. What would happen if I held a position in something you opened through was auto traded and then you send a signal to close the position? Also, I noticed some alerts today, I take it that these are for positions that are already open and are just adjustments? Thanks
Once we send an alert to close a position, that is when we are realizing our profits and the position becomes cash. The position will be closed by your auto-trade broker.
Yes, the alerts we sent out yesterday were for positions that are already open.
I hope that this has helped, however, if you require further information or have more questions please do not hesitate to contact me again.
Best Regards
Tim Stubbs - Anacott Customer Support
Hi Tim,
Let me rephrase my question - I currently hold a number of securities in my account. If you were to send an alert to trade this and another 100 or 200 shares were purchased, what happens when an alert is sent to close that postion - will it also close my postion that existed before any auto trade was initiated?
Also, there are a number of positions open, if I trade these because I can get a trade as good or better, will the auto trade alert to close be sent to my account, which in this case I would want? Does Anacott suggest not trading the open positions?
Thank you
Mark
Hi Mark
Thank you for your Email.
The trade alerts that are handled by your broker are 'matched', so if we opened a position in XXX and your account opened a covered call for 200 shares/2 contracts then when that position is closed 200 shares only would be closed. This is all handled by your broker. Your original 100 shares of XXX would remain intact.
If you initiated one of our open positions yourself then this would NOT be included in your auto-trade service from your broker, unless you specifically asked them to include it and they agreed. Their normal policy is to not auto-trade positions initiated by their clients. You will need to check with your broker for a definitive answer.
I hope that this has helped, however, if you require further information or have more questions please do not hesitate to contact me again.
Best Regards
Tim Stubbs - Anacott Customer Support
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| Tips & Reviews | |
Money Flow Index (MFI)
The Money Flow Index (MFI) is a momentum indicator that is similar to the
Relative Strength Index (RSI) in both interpretation and calculation. However,
MFI is a more rigid indicator in that it is volume-weighted, and is therefore a
good measure of the strength of money flowing in and out of a security. It
compares "positive money flow" to "negative money flow" to
create an indicator that can be compared to price in order to identify the
strength or weakness of a trend. Like the RSI, the MFI is measured on a 0 - 100
scale and is often calculated using a 14 day period.
The "flow" of money is the product of price and volume and shows the
demand for a security and a certain price. The money flow is not the same as
the Money Flow Index but rather is a component of calculating it. So when
calculating the money flow, we first need to find the average price for a
period. Since we are often looking at a 14-day period, we will calculate the
typical price for a day and use that to create a 14-day average.
Typical
Price = Day High + Day Low + Day Close
3
Money Flow = (Typical
Price) x (Volume)
The MFI compares the ratio of "positive" money flow and
"negative" money flow. If typical price today is greater than
yesterday, it is considered positive money. For a 14-day average, the sum of
all positive money for those 14 days is the positive money flow. The MFI is
based on the ratio of positive/negative money flow (Money Ratio).
Money
Ratio = Positive Money Flow
Negative Money Flow
Finally, the MFI
can be calculated using this ratio:
Money Flow Index
= 100 - (100 / 1 + Money Ratio)
The fewer number of days used to calculate
the MFI, the more volatile it will be.
The MFI can be interpreted much like the RSI in that it can signal divergences
and overbought/oversold conditions.
Divergences: Positive and negative divergences between the stock and the MFI
can be used as buy and sell signals respectively, for they often indicate the
imminent reversal of a trend. If the stock price is falling, but positive money
flow tends to be greater than negative money flow, then there is more volume
associated with daily price rises than with the price drops. This suggests a
weak downtrend that threatens to reverse as money flowing into the security is
"stronger" than money flowing out of it.
Overbought/Oversold: As with the RSI, the MFI can be used to determine if there
is too much or too little volume associated with a security. A stock is
considered "overbought" if the MFI indicator reaches 80 and above (a
bearish reading). On the other end of the spectrum, a bullish reading of 20 and
below suggests a stock is "oversold".
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| Curmudgeon's Comment |
Disclaimer: The Curmudgeon offers his opinions freely but
cautions the reader that this is what they may be worth.
Someone at AARP realized the coming
budget deal will very likely include entitlement reform, which means social
security will be carefully scrutinized. And so, the politically powerful
American Association of Retired Persons has finally admitted that the federal
government's fiscally doomed entitlements must be fixed.
On Friday, the AARP officially
decided, after what was reported to be a tumultuous internal debate, that it
will no longer reflexively stand in the way of any/all budget deals involving
Social Security benefits.
The group immediately tried to make
little of the change, issuing a statement Friday claiming that "Contrary
to the misleading characterization in a recent media story, AARP has not
changed its position on Social Security." The AARP also said, "Any
changes to this lifeline program should happen in a separate, broader
discussion."
Decoded from lobbyists' lingo into
Standard English, "Please give AARP a seat at the negotiating table in some big
deal on the future of Social Security, Medicare and maybe other things too."
"The
ship was sailing. I wanted to be at the wheel when that happens," said John Rother, AARP's long-time policy chief and a prime
mover behind its change of heart.
But moderate Democrats such as the Third Way group in Washington were beside
themselves with glee. They told the New York Times that it was "a watershed moment," and now
that the AARP has "opened the door
to reform, it is time for lawmakers to walk through it," as Third Way
President Jonathan Cowan put it.
"If
they come around and say they're ready to do something, it will be like the
Arctic icecap cracking," said former Sen.
Alan Simpson, co-chairman of a White House commission on the deficit. He has
frequently assailed the group as a barrier to progress.
The biggest political winner, of
course, is House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., whose bold plan
to save entitlements through free-market reform has obviously translated into
pressure on the not-an-inch position AARP has held over so many years.
How can the New York Times' Paul
Krugman (exposed by KTS as a serial liar), and the Democrats who will be
campaigning in 2012, continue to call Ryan an extremist now that his plan --
just by being placed on the table -- has caused such a seismic development in the
debate?
It's true that Ryan's plan focuses
on Medicare, but each entitlement is chained inexorably to the others. When one
is recognized as being in shambles, reform will come into play for the others,
too.
Ryan's proposal cast the die in
demanding that something be done about Washington's
unsustainable fiscal culture of gargantuan, untouchable spending programs that
come with automatic annual expenditure increases and phony "trust
funds" containing no real assets. Remember Al Gore's "Lock Box?" Yes, Curmudgeon is laughing too.
The pressure that caused AARP to
buckle has been building for months.
In January, for instance, Medicare
Chief Actuary Rick Foster told the House Budget Committee that he has more
confidence in the Ryan plan bringing down costs and saving Medicare from
bankruptcy than he does in the ObamaCare law's ability to do so.
On the other side of the Capitol,
Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, wants to increase the retirement age by
three months each year beginning in 2016, with those 58 and over left
unaffected. By 2027, the retirement age would be 69.
Cost-of-living-adjustments would be
reduced by 1% a year. Social Security's chief actuary believes her plan would
reduce the national debt by $7.2 trillion by 2085.
The best long-term plan for Social
Security is to give individuals control over their own retirements through
personal accounts, allow the accounts to accrue a decent return, and thus
prevent government from treating the money as its own.
To be sure, AARP's switch is a
vindication for those, such as the analysts at the Cato Institute, who have
championed private solutions. Remember G. W. Bush's private accounts proposal
in 2005?
It's finally getting harder to
pretend that $6.5 trillion in unfunded government obligations isn't really there,
and that a cut of more than 20% in benefits in a few years under current law
won't happen.
Finally, let Democrats call Paul
Ryan an extremist now! And if they do, then Curmudgeon will answer them with a
well-deserved "Shame!"
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