http://archive.aweber.com/newsprofiteerNewsProfiteer.com NewsletterWed, 23 May 2012 12:50:36 -0400http://archive.aweber.com/newsprofiteer/ADVHE/h/BREAKING_NEWS_for_May_24_.htm Hi , Here are some of the important headlines that may help with your upcoming trading decisions today... Also we have one important release out of UK tomorrow, which may further weaken the Sterling or provide a bit of support pending on the release: 4:30am UK Revised GDP http://www.henryliuforex.com/6651/uk-revised-gdp-qq-may-24-2012-trade-plan/ [BREAKING NEWS] (UK) Bank of England (BOE) releases Monetary Policy Committee Minutes show no change in the voting status from March. The interest rate vote was again unanimous and the Asset Purchase Target vote remained at 8 top 1. MPC member Miles again voted for £25B in more QE. The minutes showed the decision not to expand QE was "finely balanced" for several members. Majority saw no necessity for more QE at this point and no evidence that impact of QE would be different this time around.MPC to monitor outlook each month, more stimulus could be added if outlook warranted it. How to interpret this? While BOE members are feeling that the current monetary policy is "finely balanced", the economy has fallen back into recession, and to add insults to injury, the April Retail Sales came at -2.3%, the worst reading we've ever seen in the last 5 or more years (my calendar only goes back to 1997). Although there are lots of expectations riding on the Olympic Games to bail out UK economy, fundamentals remain unchanged with the central bank unwilling to consider more aggressive measures. My view: SELL GBP on rally. (GR) Former Greek PM Papademos indicated there is a real risk Greece would exit the euro given the increasingly apparent political stalemate surrounding austerity rejection. Papademos did suggest that the pain of the "grexit" would be worse than heeding lender demands and subsequently clarified his position that no preparations for an exit were taking place, but the damage had been done... (EU) Renewed reports circulated ECB was setting up team to deal with possibly worsening of Greek crisis. How to interpret these headlines? As we can clearly see, concerns over the EU collapse from Greece exiting the EMU have once again risen as the primary driver of Euro sell-offs today. With market flows to the safe-haven currencies and the increased volatility in European currencies, I believe EURUSD is now set to the 1.2000 level, especially if these kind of sentiments were to continue. Therefore, I'd suggest to SELL EURUSD on any significant rallies like we saw this week. (1.2800 level). Thanks, Henry Liu Wed, 23 May 2012 12:50:36 -0400http://archive.aweber.com/newsprofiteer/BULaE/h/BREAKING_NEWS_for_May_23_.htm Hi , Here are some of the important headlines that may help with your upcoming trading decisions today... Also we have four releases scheduled for tomorrow, with the all important MPC Minutes Release which may add further selling pressure in Sterling following today's weaker than expected CPI release. Of course, let's not forget the equally important UK Retail Sales either... 4:30am EST - UK MPC Meeting Minutes (Updated May-22-2012) http://www.henryliuforex.com/6640/uk-mpc-meeting-minutes-may-23-2012-trade-plan/ 4:30am EST - UK Retail Sales http://www.henryliuforex.com/6644/uk-retail-sales-may-23-2012-trade-plan/ 8:30am EST - CA Retail Sales http://www.henryliuforex.com/6646/ca-core-retail-sales-may-23-2012-trade-plan/ 10:00am EST - US New Home Sales http://www.henryliuforex.com/6646/ca-core-retail-sales-may-23-2012-trade-plan/ [BREAKING NEWS] (UK) APR CPI Y/Y: 3.0% V 3.1%E; CORE CPI Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.0%E (UK) IMF commented on UK and noted that further monetary policy easing was needed and the MPC should consider cutting interest rates below 0.50%. The IMF believed that weak UK inflation pressure gave scope for more easing in monetary policy and the UK should consider further credit easing measures and fiscal easing if downside risks materialized as UK unemployment remained much too high. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? Plain and simple, we are looking at mounting pressure from within MPC (Bank of England) and abroad (IMF) for further Quantitative Easing, Stimulus, raising the APT (Asset Purchasing Target), or whatever "printing more money" is called. Ultimately we should see a weaker GBP because both lower inflation and speculation for further easing should weigh Sterling down. (JP) FITCH CUTS JAPAN SOVEREIGN RATING TO A+ FROM AA (two notches); OUTLOOK NEGATIVE - The downgrades and Negative Outlooks reflect growing risks for Japan's sovereign credit profile as a result of high and rising public debt ratios. The country's fiscal consolidation plan looks leisurely relative even to other fiscally-challenged high-income countries, and implementation is subject to political risk. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? Japan's Sovereign Credit Rating Cut will have a long-lasting impact over the strength of the currency as traders have eased their recent buying of the yen after the news. We are likely to see some response from Japan in regards to this ratings cut, but overall JPY should start to weaken gradually... As a matter of fact, because of this new development, I believe JPY will find support at the current level against USD and should weaken moving forward. Verdict: BUY USDJPY. Thanks, Henry LiuTue, 22 May 2012 13:27:23 -0400http://archive.aweber.com/newsprofiteer/75iFE/h/BREAKING_NEWS_for_May_22_.htm Hi , Here are some of the important headlines that may help with your upcoming trading decisions today... Also we have two releases scheduled for tomorrow, with the crucial UK CPI release and the US Existing Home Sales... The UK CPI is the first of a series of UK releases for the week, but should have the potential to affect market trend as further BOE stimulus will depend on this figure: UK CPI y/y: http://www.henryliuforex.com/6627/uk-cpi-yy-may-21-2012-trade-plan/ US Existing Home Sales: http://www.henryliuforex.com/6636/us-existing-home-sales-may-22-2012-trade-plan/ [BREAKING NEWS] (CN) China premier Wen reiterated the State Council is keeping its proactive fiscal and prudent monetary policy, but also suggested more focus is needed on the growth side. Analysts took that sentiment as indication of an impending more aggressive easing by the central bank, especially in light of a fairly muted response to PBoC's 3rd RRR rate cut last week. Meanwhile, more evidence emerged of cooling China demand for hard commodities, as FT noted local buyers were deferring on delivery or defaulting altogether on shipments of coal and iron. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? I believe we may see some limited optimism but the trend is still unchanged... As a matter of fact, because of the excessive selling pressure last week, we weren't able to get good positioning on AUDUSD sells, now with this possible consolidation, we may see a slight uptick in AUD where we should SELL on Rally... Considering the potential implication of less demand for commodities in China, I believe AUDUSD should remain bearish. (EU) French President Hollande, who said he is not alone in support of creation of euro zone bonds. A more formal proposal for underwriting state debt would be unveiled at the upcoming informal EU summit this Wednesday. Germany Govt spokesperson reiterates that its position on Euro Bonds had not changed and still opposed to concept as it was not the medium for resolving crisis. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? We are beginning to see some conflicts between Germany and France, which may make the current uncertainty even worse. However, if the Eurobond were to be accepted, there will be a certain level of optimism as concerns of default should diminish because Europe as a whole is better than Spain, Portugal, Italy, or Greece on its own. However, the situation is still unchanged in Europe. I believe a SELL on rally is still the right move, therefore I would be looking to SELL EURUSD between 1.2800 ~ 1.2900 level. (UK) BOE member Posen: Source of Euro zone problems is not only Greece as some banks are insufficiently undercapitalized. Good monetary policy alone would not solve structural problems in global markets but govt intervention would. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? I think this could be a *wink wink* moment for Posen as he could be hinting a more easing stance for his own bank, BOE, and that if today's CPI shows less pressure, MPC could raise the APT soon in the future... At any rate, GBP should drop in the short-term, regardless whether the reason is based on less inflationary pressure or potential central bank stimuli. Thanks, Henry LiuMon, 21 May 2012 12:17:17 -0400http://archive.aweber.com/newsprofiteer/KjZzE/h/_IMPORTANT_.htm Hi , I just wanted to let you know that I just posted this week's review and upcoming calendar (May 21 ~ May 25, 2012) on my blog, if you got a few minutes to spare, you need to read this and get prepared... http://www.henryliuforex.com/6653/forex-market-review-and-upcoming-forex-calendar-may-21-25-2012/ Thanks, Henry Liu Sat, 19 May 2012 17:54:45 -0400http://archive.aweber.com/newsprofiteer/5_ABE/h/BREAKING_NEWS_for_May_18_.htm Hi , Here are some of the important headlines that may help with your upcoming trading decisions today... Also we have the Canada Core CPI scheduled for tomorrow, with the BOC being the most likely major central bank to hike interest rates next, a sudden rise in inflation would definitely affect market speculation: http://www.henryliuforex.com/6585/ca-core-cpi-may-18-2012-forex-strategy/ [BREAKING NEWS] (US) MAY PHILADELPHIA FED: -5.8 V 10.0E (Lowest since Sept 2011); APR LEADING INDICATORS: -0.1% V +0.1%E; (US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 370K V 365KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.265M V 3.230ME WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? Today's second tier U.S. Data showed further doubt into the recovery momentum in the U.S. economy. Although US is still expected to remain strong in relation to other majors, we may see some weakness against recent strength in JPY. (EU) EU/IMF/ECB Troika was said to examine possible contingency plans for Portugal in the event of a Greek exit from EMU. Spanish Bank Bankia [BKIA.ES] Clients said to have withdrawn over €1B since last Wednesday. (ES) Spain Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.4%e. (ES) Moody's is said to be cutting Spanish bank ratings as soon as today. Renewed market chatter that major European countries might delay ESM ratification vote... WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? Another series of negative news out of Europe, but with concerns now extending to other member states that are more vulnerable to the Greece situation. This is known as Contagion Fear, and is signaling both Portugal and Spain are next on the list... Also if the ESM ratification vote is delayed, especially in Germany where there was a rumor circulating for weeks about German Lower House delaying the vote scheduled for May 25, we may see EURUSD drop below the 1.2600 level... Why? Uncertainty is not good for Euro. Summary: SELL EURO on pullbacks or continuing Selling EURO. (JP) Prelim GDP growth in Q1 GDP was 1.0% while annualized rose to 4.1% better than the 3.5% expected. The positive readings also assuaged fears of a technical recession. Exports and private consumption also showed a marked improvement. Former MoF official Sakakibara ('Mr Yen') commented on CNBC that Japan would not have a crisis for the next 4-5 years. Current USD/JPY levels were not an issue for exporters but could be if it moved below 70 handle. He believed the JPY could strengthen towards 78 for a while. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? It means for the short-term JPY may be stronger than USD... we are already seeing the effects of today's news, therefore I'd recommend to BUY JPY or SELL any JPY crosses on consolidation... Thanks, Henry LiuThu, 17 May 2012 12:28:19 -0400http://archive.aweber.com/newsprofiteer/M7I6E/h/BREAKING_NEWS_for_May_17_.htm Hi , Here are some of the important headlines that may help with your upcoming trading decisions today... Also we have the US FOMC Minutes coming out at 2:00pm EST, so make sure you pay attention to that release as it may very well change the sentiment for USD for the week... If you missed my analysis, you can find it at the link below, as I expect to see neutral or slightly bullish sentiment for the USD after the Minutes: http://www.henryliuforex.com/6587/us-fomc-meeting-minutes-may-16-2012-forex-strategy/ [BREAKING NEWS] (UK)Bank of England Releases Quarterly Inflation Report which raised inflation forecast with CPI seen above 2% for the next year or so compared to its Feb forecast of until Q4 2012. The report noted that Inflation report chart shows CPI at around 1.6% in 2 years and at 1.8% in 3 years assuming market interest rate path and AFT steady at £325B. BoE Gov King stated during QandA that contingency plans were being discussed for some time with UK Treasury and FSA regarding the euro area. On QE decision he noted that ultimately have to be driven by inflation outlook, last week decision consistent with that idea. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? This means no more stimuli from BOE for the time being as inflation is a concern. With UK's GDP showing 2 quarters of negative readings in a row, the outlook for UK is bleak at best, and if you combine the threat of a EU collapse, GBP is likely to weaken further. (GR) Greece Syriza party leader Tsipras: Interim government should halt all austerity programs, state asset sales must be frozen, wage cuts should not be implemented. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? Tsipras represents the people of Greece and we may see the situation getting worse as we approach the new election in mid-June... Greece may exit EU and there is nothing anyone can do about it, especially with the public stand by these leftists politicians. Verdict: SELL more EURO. (CN)China's Big Four state-run banks were said to have issued almost no new Yuan loans in the first half of May. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? The AUDUSD pair was suffering not only from euro zone risks, yet also concerns that activity in China's economy may be faltering. I believe the long overdue correction for AUDUSD is on the way, so definitely SELL on any rally. Thanks, Henry LiuWed, 16 May 2012 12:20:30 -0400http://archive.aweber.com/newsprofiteer/Ei4KU/h/BREAKING_NEWS_for_May_16_.htm Hi , Here are some of the important headlines that may help with your upcoming trading decisions today... Also we have two high impact releases scheduled for tomorrow from UK and US, both of them could change the short-term trend of the market, especially the latter one... UK Inflation Report http://www.henryliuforex.com/6577/uk-boe-inflation-report-may-16-2012-forex-strategy/ US FOMC Meeting Minutes http://www.henryliuforex.com/6587/us-fomc-meeting-minutes-may-16-2012-forex-strategy/ [BREAKING NEWS] (GR) Independent Greeks Party Leader Kammenos: There is no deal on coalition govt, new elections are likely to take place (as expected)- Follow up: Greece President's office confirms statements by Kammenos, fresh elections will take place- Caretaker government to be appointed on Wednesday, May 16th. Greece will pay holdouts €430M of a Euro bond maturing today. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? This means more uncertainty in Greece and more uncertainty in the Euro. Market does not like uncertainties, so we should see further weakness in the EUR and the play should be SELL on rally. (US) APR ADVANCE RETAIL SALES: 0.1% V 0.1%E; RETAIL SALES LESS AUTOS: 0.1% V 0.2%E- Sales Ex Auto and Gas: 0.1% v 0.3%e. US) APR CONSUMER PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.0% V 0.0%E; CPI EX FOOD and ENERGY M/M: 0.2% V 0.2%E ; CPI NSA: 230.085V 229.9E. CPI Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.3%e / CPI Ex-food and Energy Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.3%e WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? US Economy has softened a bit, however the inflationary pressure still remain at 2.3% y/y, which means it is still a concern for the Federal Reserve on another round of quantitative easing. Therefore, I'd expect to see further strength in the USD, especially against the likes of EUR, AUD, or even GBP. (AU) RBA released May 1st meeting minutes saying that members judged it to be desirable rate move below December levels, also indicated that they did not even entertain a 25bp cut. One of the main reasons given was to offset higher bank rates. Reiterated that growth outside of mining would be below trend and that EU situation continues to cloud the global outlook. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? I think it's clear that the majority of analysts were dead WRONG during last RBA Meeting, only 14% of them predicted a 0.50% cut! Now the truth is out, and we shall see more cuts from RBA in the future... With China's FDI today coming out at -0.7% v 2.8%E(wow), and how desperate China wants to boost growth by cutting the RRR by 0.50% (and the fact that there was little or no reaction from the market) we will see further weakness in the AUD... so SELL on rally. Thanks, Henry Liu Tue, 15 May 2012 12:38:54 -0400http://archive.aweber.com/newsprofiteer/LpstU/h/BREAKING_NEWS_for_May_15_.htm Hi , Here are some of the important headlines that may help with your upcoming trading decisions today... Also we have two high impact news releases scheduled for tomorrow out of the U.S., and with current market sentiment, we are likely to see further strengths in greenback if both of these figures beat expectations... I'd focus on Core Retail Sales as it is more likely to surprise the market than Core CPI. US Core CPI (May 15, 2012 8:30am EST / 12:30 GMT) http://www.henryliuforex.com/6571/us-core-cpi-may-15-2012-forex-strategy/ US Core Retail Sales (May 15, 2012 8:30am EST / 12:30 GMT) http://www.henryliuforex.com/6574/us-core-retail-sales-may-15-2012-forex-strategy/ [BREAKING NEWS] (GR) Greece gov't has not taken any decision on May 15th Bond maturity - Greece €436M bond redemption is due and the finance ministry has proposed that this payment be made on time previously. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? This basically means more selling pressure on the EURO and if Greece fails to pay for this bond redemption, immediate default risk will drive it down to the 1.2650 or less against USD... All eyes on Greek decision now. (EU) Chatter is increasing that Greece will leave the EU within the year, officials commenting that the EU would be able to survive if it were to occur. Troika officials are said to be open to renegotiating some terms of the bailout if Greece is able to put a pro-EU government in place. (GR) Germany Chancellor Merkel: Reiterates that it would be better for Greece to stay in the euro zone. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? It means that situation in Europe has brought speculation of a major collapse, although some analysts believe that the EU will survive, but there are degrees of survival, and none are desirable... So this news just reinforces the fact to SELL EUR; if you see any recovery in the EUR, it should be your cue to sell. [BRENT] Crude oil fell after the Saudi Oil Minister said that $100/brl ($111.80 currently) Brent was a good price and that they would do all they could to help return prices to the that level. (CN) PBoC cut the key reserve ratio requirement (RRR) by 50bps to 20.0% (the third cut in 6 months) for China's big banks; this gave the markets a slightly positive start before becoming mixed. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? With the strength in the USD and the turmoil in Europe, commodities are likely to be under pressure, and that would include Gold, Silver, and Crude... I believe with the exception of CAD, we should see further weakness in the AUD as it is a currency rooted in metals, plus the RRR cut by PBoC did very little to the AUD on Sunday open, which corresponds to my Trading Strategy #5, meaning we should SELL AUD at every turn. Thanks, Henry Liu Mon, 14 May 2012 13:21:23 -0400http://archive.aweber.com/newsprofiteer/BB2nU/h/_IMPORTANT_.htm Hi , I just wanted to let you know that I just posted this week's review and upcoming calendar (May 14 ~ May 18, 2012) on my blog, if you got a few minutes to spare, you need to read this and get prepared... http://www.henryliuforex.com/6608/forex-market-review-and-upcoming-forex-calendar-may-14-18-2012/ Thanks, Henry Liu Sat, 12 May 2012 10:52:27 -0400http://archive.aweber.com/newsprofiteer/5fydU/h/BREAKING_NEWS_for_May_11_.htm Hi , Here are some of the important headlines that may help with your upcoming trading decisions today... Also we have one more news for the week scheduled for tomorrow, here's the quick analysis: CA Employment Change m/m http://www.henryliuforex.com/6525/canada-employment-change-may-11-2012-forex-news-trading/ (AU) Australia recorded a lower than expected unemployment rate at 4.9% in April, a 1-year low. Employment change rose for the second consecutive month. The news drove the AUD/USD higher above $1.0115, but will make an argument not to cut rates at the next RBA meeting. Full time jobs lost 10,500, however part time jobs added 26,000 close to March levels. Strength in the jobs market is mostly attributed to the mining boom and the huge investments from the major miners into expanding capacity to meet demand from India and China. Australia 10-year yields around 3.321% after the data. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? I believe that AUD may find temporary support due to this release, but the key is on temporary. I think the overall trend is still down, China is still going to slow down, and the next quarterly inflation data for Australia will be scheduled in July, which means RBA will have to stick with its latest projections, and we know those projections aren't favorable for AUD... Therefore, I'd be looking to SELL on rally on the AUD... (UK) BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE) LEAVES INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.50%; AS EXPECTED. (The was a 16% of chance for 25B increase in the APT heading into this decision). WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? If you read my Strategy #5, you'd see this coming as market sold off GBP ahead of the rate decision and then reversed its course, classical Buy on rumor, Sell on news reaction... In the long run I'd still be selling GBP, since there are no fundamental reason to be buying GBP at this time... so it's time to sell GBP at the high :) (JP) Japan Vice Fin Min Igarashi: Reiterates that could intervene in fx market if excessive speculation occured. Reiterates must carefully monitor whether rapid speculative fx moves are occuring. Must not be overly pessimistic on Europe, too early to expect USD and EUR weakness to persist against JPY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? It means don't bet on JPY to gain too much... as a matter of fact, I've been advising my members to SELL JPY. Remember last week's JPY strength was due to the Golden Week holiday in Japan and Europe's Election fears... with Japanese officials back to work this week, we are highly unlikely to see further unchallenged strength in JPY, so LONG USDJPY on dip is my current plan. Thanks, Henry Liu Thu, 10 May 2012 11:43:03 -0400