Hi ,

4:30am UK Manufacturing PMI      57.1(E)    57.3(P)     2(S)     50M
8:15am US ADP NFP                 20K(E)     42K(P)   50K(S)     50M
10:00am US ISM Manuf. PMI        53.2(E)    55.5(P)   2.5(S)     50M
  
E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)

[IMPORTANT CHANGES]
I've decided to keep newsletter short and sweet.  If you prefer to
look at the numbers and get right on to trading, then you are going
to love the new format.  If you want more detailed analysis, you can
always read them at my blog where I share a much more detailed
analysis and sometimes with a pre-recorded video to get you
familiarize with trading the news...                     -Henry Liu

***

NEWS TRADING

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

[4:30am NY Time]

Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator and it's usually released
during early month. Traders pay attention to this release for
surprises as this survey may help to shape the general trend of the
market. Here is the forecast:

UK Manufacturing PMI Forecast 57.1 Previous 57.3
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 59.1 SELL 55.0

The Trade Plan
We are looking for a tradable deviation (or the difference between
the forecast figure and the actual release figure) of 2.0, and
because this is a leading indicator and its impact may hint that the
future trend of other economic indicators (such as inventory,
employment, retail sales, etc..) , therefore market should react to
this release with volatility if we get our deviation.

We will be looking to BUY GBP/USD if we get a 59.1 or better, or
looking to SELL GBP/USD if we get a 55.0 or worse, we'll be using
the Retracement Trading Method to trade this release.

For a more detailed analysis including Market and Pre-News, please
visit my blog:

UK Manufacturing PMI Detailed Analysis

[8:15am NY Time]

ADP or Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) is releasing it's own
estimate for the private sectors of NFP (Nonfarm Payroll). This is
high impact release and it's followed by currency traders as they
look for hints on Friday's NFP official release. Here's the
forecast:

US ADP NFP Change Forecast 20K Previous 42K
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 70K SELL -30K

The Trade Plan
As stated in my last analysis on ADP NFP news, I usually don't trade
it but I use this release for future market trend references.
However, I assume that most traders are likely to do the same, but
if the deviation of 50K is actually hit, true speculators will
probably have not problem jumping into the market, and this will
undoubtedly change market perception for Friday's NFP release;
therefore it is best to be around your computer during the release
time rather than finding out what happened hours later and perhaps
missed the entire movement.

With the above being said, if we get 70K or better release, I'd be
looking to BUY USD/JPY; if we get a -30K or worse, then I'd be
looking to SELL USD/JPY... I'll look at how close we are to the 84.00
level as it has been considered a strong support for the pair and in
order for us to take a SELL trade, we need to see market break
beyond 83.50 level

For a more detailed analysis including Market and Pre-News, please
visit my blog:

US ADP NFP Employment

[10:00am NY Time]

ISM or Institute for Supply Management is releasing its PMI
(Purchasing Manager Index) and it is similar to the UK Manufacturing
PMI as this release is targeting the Manufacturing sector. As a
leading indicator, traders generally pay attention to this report
for hints of economic trend. Here's the forecast:

US ISM Manufacturing PMI Forecast 53.2 Previous 55.5
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 56.0 SELL 50.5 USDJPY

The Trade Plan
We'll be looking for 2.5 points of deviation for this trade. If a
56.0 or better number is released, we could see some USD strength
and JPY weakness, thererefore a BUY on the USD/JPY. If the opposite
is true, or 50.5 figure is released, expect to see stronger JPY in
the short term.

If our tradable releases are reached, there is a good expectation of
50 pips of market movement within the next 60 minutes on USD/JPY.
I'll be looking to trade USD/JPY or other JPY crosses as they may
all exhibit similar movements using my Retracement Trading Method.

For a more detailed analysis including Market and Pre-News, please
visit my blog:

US ISM Manufacturing PMI Detailed Analysis

Thanks,

Henry Liu