Hi ,

9:00am CA BOC Interest Rate    1.00%(E)   0.75%(P)    0.25%(S)   50M
9:30pm AU Employment Change    25.0K(E)   23.5K(P)      30K(S)   50M
  
E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)

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NEWS TRADING

Wednesday September 8, 2010

[9:00am NY Time]

Bank of Canada (BOC) will once again meet for their Overnight Rate
(Interest Rate) and the decision will be announced today at 9:00am
sharp. Along with the rate decision, BOC Carney will also announce a
Rate Statement to further explain today's decision. Here's what
analysts are expecting:

CA BOC Rate Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 0.75%
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 1.00% BUY 0.75%

The Trade Plan
BOC (Bank of Canada) will be hiking its Overnight Rate as the
majority of analysts agree (14 out 20 as surveyed by Bloomberg). BOC
is likely to remain optimistically cautious in its tone but the
overall market is expecting a rate hike.

However, since this rate decision is not perceived as a "done deal",
it is possible that we'll see market react to both possibilities,
therefore we would be looking to BUY USD/CAD if BOC decides to leave
rates unchanged and SELL USD/CAD if BOC decides to hike as expected.

I'll be trading this release using Spike Trading method as the odds
for either possibilities are high, therefore it is almost guaranteed
that we'll see strong market movement immediately after the release.

For a more detailed analysis including Market and Pre-News, please
visit my blog:

Detailed Analysis For BOC Interest Rate Decision

[9:30pm NY Time]

Australia Employment Change is similar to U.S. NFP (Nonfarm Payroll)
and Canada Employment Change, this is an economic indicator for the
Employment Changes in Australia, here's the forecast:

AU Employment Change Forecast 25K Previous 23/5K
AU Unemployment Rate Forecast 5.2% Previous 5.3%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 55K SELL -1K

The Trade Plan
The deviation that we are looking for is at least of 30K.
Historically a 25K~30K of difference has produced about 40~50 pips
of movement in the direction of the difference about 75% of the
time... Expect to see the effect of this news to last minimum 45
minutes to 2 hours... typical news effect should last under 2 hours.
One other important news to pay attention to is the Unemployment
Rate, which is expected to drop to 5.2% for last month's surprise
5.3% release. If we do not get a conflict with the Employment
Changes, then we will proceed with the trading plan.

We'll look to trade this using after news retracement trading
method, we'll wait for the market to retrace and stay out of the
market during the release time. If we get a 55K of release, our bias
will be to BUY AUD/USD; if we get a -10K of release, our bias will
be to SELL AUD/USD. We'll only enter after we see a decent
retracement from the initial spike.

For a more detailed analysis including Market and Pre-News, please
visit my blog:

Henry Liu