Cheltenham Festival Analysis: A 33-1 poke for the Fred Winter...

Published: Fri, 03/08/19

This time next week we'll either be riding high on the wings of Cheltenham glory or drowning in the depths of festival failure!!

I hope and work for the former, whilst fearing the latter!!

Whatever state I'm in come a week today I'm sure I'll have enjoyed the ride (despite my brain almost certainly being in the fried to hell stage!) and as always I'm excited to find out what the four days hold for me...

I've been burning the midnight oil like a good 'un over the past couple of weeks and today I'm going to share some of that analysis with you, in the form of some trends digging for that brute of a race that is the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle!

As you do!

I did something very similar for you guys the last couple of years.

The race isn't currently one that appears on my 22 race schedule for full NTF Members but it is one I want to continue having on my radar, with a view to future inclusion on the full service. I may yet include it on the full schedule next week, I have the flexibility to move things around, depending on how other races on the day shape up.

In fairness it's probably one of the trickiest races to master over the 4 days, with six of the last seven winners returning at 25/1 (x2), 33/1 (x3) & 40/1.

In fact nine of the 13 winners have gone off at an SP of 14/1 or bigger.

No denying that when it comes to tricky Cheltenham Festival puzzles this one is bang up there!

I don't mind that though, in fact I relish it, especially when it's a race that is starting to look strong on the trends front.

There are currently 48 horses still entered in the race so to cut that down to a manageable shortlist I used the following main trends...

1 14/14 were rated OR 134 or less (0/57 rated 135+)

2 14/14 no more than 16 career starts

3 14/14 were yet to run at track (0/62 those that had previously run at track)

4 14/14 didn't run in a maiden race LTO

5 13/14 DSLR 37 or less (1/117 DSLR 38+)

6 13/14 top 2 finish 1 of last 3 starts

7 13/14 ran in a Non-Handicap Hurdle LTO

8 13/14 were IRE or FR bred

Grab your NTF Cheltenham slot today!

Thankfully that cuts the field down to the following eight runners...

COKO BEACH

ZIZANEUR

MAZE RUNNER

IDILICO

BACHELOR

QUANTATMENTAL

CHAPARRAL PRINCE

HONORABLE

I need to cut that down further so...

CHAPARRAL PRINCE & HONORABLE can be dropped for now as they are both rated below 124 and no horse rated below that has made the final cut in the last six renewals. As the race grows so does the average OR of the runners that contest the race and in recent years the average OR to line up has been low 130's, making it difficult for those rated low 120's to get in.

Given that the max field for the race is 22 the both BACHELOR & QUANTATMENTAL (35th & 36th on the list) need plenty to drop out before getting a run so I'll drop them from the list at present as well.

Which then leaves four...

IDILICO (I Williams)

MAZE RUNNER (W Mullins)

ZIZANEUR (P Hobbs)

COKO BEACH (G Elliott)

The Ian Williams horse - IDILICO - has already had five Hurdle starts and given that 12 of the 14 winners of the Fred Winter had only been over timber a maximum of three times (UK & Ireland Hurdle starts) I'm happy enough to drop him from the shortlist.

ZIZANEUR for Hobbs isn't of huge interest for me given that we know the trainer has been struggling at the festival with his runners that start at bigger than 5-1 (0/84), and I think we can be pretty certain that this one will fall into that bracket!

The other two are of plenty interest to me at the prices but the one that stands out at me the most is...

Grab your NTF Cheltenham slot today!

COKO BEACH from the Gordon Elliott yard is the one that interests me the most and at current odds of 33-1 I'm more than happy to get involved.

Elliott has won the Fred Winter twice since 2011, with a further two finishing in the places, from a pool of only 12 runners, and this French bred 4yo looked every inch a Fred Winter project in the making based on his tender handing on his last start at Naas, where he was 'nursed' to the line under hands and heels to finish an 8L third.

COKO BEACH should also appreciate the likely under foot cut he'll get at Cheltenham, with the ground having now finally softened up after the much needed rain we've just experience. He won his only start in France on Very Soft ground over 2m1.5f, suggesting there is enough stamina in him to handle the final climb up the Cheltenham hill ,and with 17 of Elliott's 20 Festival winners (in past 6 seasons) having warmed up in a NON-Handicap event (which this lad did) it gives yet another positive to his chances.

He's got a solid trends profile, I suspect he'll be a full marks scorer on my wider trends for the race, and the 33/1 on offer (NRNB) looks well worth a dabble.

MAZE RUNNER for Mullins is of a certain level of interest but the trainer is currently 0/12, 0p in the race and only two of them have even managed to trouble the top 10, and I do just wonder if it's a race that's pretty low on his list of priorities. It's worth noting, however, that he has finished in front of Coko Beach on the two occasions they've met...

I'll keep the rest of the shortlist firmly on my radar though and I'll give them further thought come final decs.

Best of luck if getting involved...

Ben (NTF)

Join NTF for the 2019 Cheltenham Festival

*Doors will be closing Sunday 10th March

https://www.narrowingthefield.co.uk/ntf-2019-cheltenham-festival-sign-up/