Hi
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I’m Grant Symons. I convene Transition Edge to help us understand how we can transition to a low carbon sustainable world using leading thinking and practices.
Apparently we are on the road to some sort of K-shaped world? Sounds like someone has put some thought into that, right?
Trying to travel on diverging roads is getting tougher and the destination sounds even worse.
In today's article we explore three questions:
- What is the system that accepts and perpetuates a K shaped world (recovery)?
- What are some confusing consequences of trying to accommodate two directions?
- What can we do to deliver a safe transition?
Given the brevity of this article and the enormity of the topic, we are going to try and boil things down in a way that, as folks on the Edge, you can pick up some insights, continue or start a conversation and/or give us some feedback. We might not have it right, but our motto is 'progress over perfection'. We are trying to help raise our general awareness - NOT
be the black hat team! (it is a fine line to walk though)
1. The system that proposes and accepts a K-shaped recovery is of course Business as usual. It's where the privileged world, on the upward leg, gets to continue upwards and the rest declines further. It's where the big institutions get to grow bigger and have more power and influence. It's where the short-termism of political cycles, the power of big money and the reach and imbeddedness of existing institutions get to determine the
future.
This system has been centuries in the making and is unsustainable. Was it ever sustainable? Think France 1780's! Aside from the simple fact that we already consume roughly 1.6 times the earth's renewable resources each year, we are also simultaneously modifying the atmosphere and biosphere in life threatening ways...every single day. Just doing business as usual! The carbon
doesn't go away, even if we stop emitting tomorrow. We still need to continue living with the consequences of what is already in the atmosphere.
How we got here has been rampant, colonisation, energisation, industrialisation, financialisation, digitisation, virtualisation, specialisation and externalisation (of negative impacts into the environment). That's a lot of 'isation' for anyone! And now a new phenomena, Covid-isation. Yes, a pandemic response that is modifying global systems in ways that we do not yet fully understand.
The not-so-hidden beliefs are: competition at all costs is good, eternal growth is possible, extraction and exploitation are required, and that unconstrained consumption and waste are just part of modern life and can just carry on uninterrupted. And an assumption that the systems of the past growth-era are fit for purpose, as we move into transition. Really?
Meanwhile, those people: on the downward slope, including low and middle income workers, subject to any form of discrimination, environmental destruction, climate change, political, social and economic marginalisation or instability - all face even worse prospects in the future. What might be tough in New Zealand will be catastrophic in some parts of the world.
2. In New Zealand this growing divide and tension seems to be surfacing in confusing ways. We are experiencing the perverse effects of trying to balance competing demands between perception, wants and reality - on two courses - while simultaneously attempting to normalise what are detrimental outcomes, by changing the narrative, mindsets, language, social behaviour, norms and institutional
tool-sets: examples such as:
- Criticising parts of the agricultural sector for environmental degradation, while promoting exports that will bring revenue receipts and earnings that can fuel ongoing consumption habits;
- A housing crisis response - albeit too late for many Kiwis - that is having perverse outcomes, such as, a price explosion that puts first home buyers further behind and mass construction of dubious quality dwellings that will require re-fitting or replacement in short timeframes. All while increasingly encroaching on prime agricultural land for residential property;
- A growing burden on local government, underfunded community and welfare support groups, while central government policy and agency support is not configured to provide effective targeted funding for local problems and opportunities. Partnership and partnering opportunities to solve local problems abound, but are under-resourced and squandered;
- Rushing to bring back plane-loads of tourists and cheap foreign labour to serve them, while ECCA is thrashing the Gen-less campaign? The government signing-off the construction of new infrastructure and the rampant promotion of 'recovery' consumption - all at a time when scientists, environmentalists and engineers, around the world, are saying we must have net-zero emissions in 20 years PERIOD!
These examples might simultaneously be the canary in the mine and the tip of the iceberg (and other clichés). Behind all of the politics, power and the need to provide a return on investment are some institutions. The underlying premise that the finance, insurance, real estate and big-tech sectors (and recently the government has got in on the act of creating money) get to expand their balance sheets
- no matter what happens - might drive us collectively to some hard decisions about whether K is feasible and or desirable.
On the one hand we have economists, technologists, policy idealists, public relations experts, marketing and design agencies and zombie companies (those propped up with cheap finance) all wanting us to believe, what on the other hand, most scientists, academics, front-line workers and ordinary folks feel and know can't be done. How long can such a scheme go on? That said, changing it is our greatest ever
challenge.
3. A safe future does not feature K.
We haven't met anyone yet that disagrees with the vision of long-term holistic wellbeing. Nor have we met anyone yet, who knows how to get there in a safe, sustainable and just way. Which is, by the way, why THQ exists.
Long term wellbeing includes everything. It has to. In this future, the earth, nature and people are restored to a sustainable balance. The economy is a concept that might exist within that system, but many argue that it cannot be the system.
In the transition, the need for relentless economic growth and returns on an infinitely expanding money supply and debt somehow gets reconciled in preference for a better future. How do we do that? What options or middle ground do we have?
A lot of water to go under the bridge, but for the meantime we can continue to develop ourselves, our understanding of what is possible, and our ability to work together to resolve this conundrum.
The pathway seems somewhat
obscured. Perhaps through ignorance, perhaps by design, or more likely through habit and
lock-in to past ways of being. In this
post-truth era here is a watch list (just to keep your awareness sensors tuned) of what we think we will see more of
for a while:
- Institutions using their position and resources to shape the narrative in favour of BAU (They often promise something new, but you can assume it will be BAU with a continuation of damage to the earth and some extra claims on your future)
- Idealists becoming increasingly extreme in views and behaviours
- Bureaucrats becoming narrower in focus and increasingly firmer with law and compliance
- Evangelists increasingly attracting those with little hope or faith in the BAU system
- Ordinary people finding their personal values are increasingly at odds with the old BAU machine, their employer, perhaps friends and family
- Marginalised groups getting treated in increasingly perverse ways
- Politicians continuing to look after short-term interests, while trading off the long term
- Youth becoming increasingly mobilised
- Experts being replaced by social and collective intelligence and action
- Managers and leaders being challenged to change
As you all know, THQ is dedicated to helping individuals (yes, that is you), teams and organisations transition sustainably. Over the past two years we have noticed a significant shift in attitudes and focus towards change for the better, there is a huge positive shift underway, which is very encouraging.
We need to continue to build on the positive progress and be clear about what isn't acceptable - lets work to take the K out of the narrative.
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In the coming months we will be sharing more about our upcoming projects and the appointment of our advisory board.
This weeks quote provided by Steve - Johnsonville, Wellington NZ
"Don't ever take a fence down until you know the reason why it was put up" - John F. Kennedy (Paraphrasing a longer quote by G. K. Chesterton)
Please send us your quote for future issues of The Edge... and forward this to folks that care about a safe and just transition.
