The Truth About the Markets - Changing points of view
Published: Wed, 11/29/23
The entire advance in NG since i turned bullish is overlapping, but it is nine waves. Nine waves can be an impulse; overlaps can mean it is a leading diagonal. In simple words, it may be wave 1 up and now wave 2 down, but for that, it must not fall to new lows. 61.8% retracement near 2.82 is the first critical support to watch for wave 2 to bottom. Let us see if this support holds.
As nifty surpasses 19850, the current move is set up to scale new all-time highs. This opens up two alternatives that we will consider. In case the US recession risk still holds true, we are in wave E [or wave 5 in the case of Nifty 500] of an ending pattern in the 5th wave. The more bullish alternate also remains valid since the recent correction did not go below the 40dema a 18820. So wave 2 may have ended at 18843, and wave 3 started, and 3=1 is at 22650. We will try to stay with this move as long as it holds with the momentum cycle [using RMI]. We should be able to conclude the final count at a later stage.
Rohit Srivastava
www.indiacharts.com
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