The Truth About the Markets - Seasons Greetings Nifty
Published: Sun, 12/10/23
Dear ,
A seasonal period of volatility is coming up soon as the year 2023 comes to an end. Its not just the Jan effect but that the eight year cycle kicks in as well during 2024. So while the larger trend appears bullish this is seasonally a good time to take heed of risks and allow for the market to do its own thing. I will wait for the next good entry point when it shows up. Enjoy the weekend.
It has been a while, but sometimes you just need time. You do not need to say something about everything every day. My expectations for wave 3 or a 50-61.8% retracement in BTC have played out. What has kept me on hold is understanding the big picture. After all the recent rally does not mean that the dollar is out of the woods or in serious trouble yet. The inverse correlation with DXY long-term may not go away. Divergences between the two can occur during turning points. So we are coming close to the end of wave C [or 3 for bulls], of a bounce. As we get close to the 48500 mark which is also 61.8% retracement, be aware that we can end the counter trend bounce near this level anytime and resume a bearish phase. The best part of the bitcoin bounce is done now introspect
Nifty premiums are back at levels last seen a year ago when the December top formed in markets. The one-month and two-month premiums for December jumped.
Until last year, this was the most controlled bond market in the world, and the JCB had only one task in front of it: to buy more bonds at a predefined yield [also called yield curve control]. In its recent meetings, it has progressively removed some of these limits, allowing for price discovery in the Japanese bond market. The chart below reflects this change as wave counts are now possible, and they continue to point upward. The stock market in Japan has fallen for the last two days as yields started to rise, but it will not stop here. The chart below shows that we are in wave 3 and inside that an impulse is in formation. Wave v of 3 is the next move higher for bond yields that should see it rise to over 2%. This in a market that was sitting at 0 to negative yields for the longest period.
Rohit Srivastava
www.indiacharts.com
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