Texans already fear a grid collapse. Imagine if we don’t get moving on more power | Opinion

Editorials

Welcome to the hope and faith portion of the Texas summer.

We hope the air conditioning stays on as temperatures surge past 100 degrees, and we place our faith in Our Lady of Dispatchable Power — because the mere mortals managing the state electrical grid no longer seem so reliable.

Slightly more than half of respondents in a new statewide poll say they think a grid breakdown is likely this summer, and even more expect rolling blackouts. More than 8 in 10 believe they’ll be asked to conserve at some point to keep the lights on. These fears are common now, after the shutdown of January 2021 and subsequent warnings about excessive demand in extreme weather, both hot and cold.

But they are short-term symptoms of a long-term concern. Texas needs more power — a lot more — in the coming years. There are many reasons, and while continued population and economic growth are the biggest drivers, attention lately has fallen on other culprits: cryptocurrency mining and data centers fueling the artificial-intelligence boom.

Both require tremendous amounts of electricity to run and cool banks of servers doing fast, complex computing. These are not your typical MacBook or anything close to it; they place a substantial burden on the grid.

So much so that Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, once an advocate for crypto, says Texas might need to consider regulations on mining. After Pablo Vargas, president and CEO of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, recently told a state Senate committee that much of the power Texas will need in the next few decades will go to these and other commercial activities, Patrick questioned whether they are worth the cost, in terms of jobs created.

“I’m more interested in building the grid to service customers in their homes, apartments, and normal businesses and keeping costs as low as possible for them instead of for very niche industries that have massive power demands and produce few jobs,” he wrote online.

It’s worth asking the question, though regulatory efforts should always proceed cautiously. The first step is to get a firm handle on future demand. ERCOT’s projection that the state could need nearly double the power available in just a few years surprised many. Lawmakers should insist on estimates that factor in every possible need, aligned to the state’s priorities of keeping Texans safe and maintaining the economic boom of the last two decades.

Then, it’s reasonable to consider limitations on the crypto and AI industries. It’s a tough balance, because Texas should be a leader in such innovation. And while some crypto miners have been willing to curtail their activities at times of heightened demand for power, they’ve been paid handsomely for it in Texas’ electricity markets.

Third, let’s recognize that the electrification of so much of life creates strain. Texas is not alone in these issues. The U.S. overall faces a much higher energy demand in coming decades, especially as policymakers put their thumbs heavily on the scale for electric vehicles.

This means, ironically, burning more fossil fuels for the foreseeable future. That’s not to denigrate renewable energy, which remains vital to the future and should be as big a part of our energy mix as practical. Long term, nuclear plants should be a vital part of the solution. But Texas, much less the nation, isn’t ready for a major switch away from oil and gas.

If anything, we need more of it to provide for more power, especially from natural gas, a cleaner alternative to the coal that other countries are burning in disturbing abundance.

Of course, conservation remains an important priority, too. It’s a virtue to reduce waste and use fewer resources. But Texas’ problem is in supply, not demand. Our industries need reliable power, and Texans need protection from the extreme heat and, occasionally, bitter cold, too.

Lawmakers and voters began to move on the need for expanded capacity last year, when they approved the Texas Energy Fund, $7.2 billion for low-interest loans that would fund plant construction. Developers seeking loans pre-applied for more than five times that amount, a sign that the market recognizes the urgent, ongoing need for more electricity.

Texas is well-positioned for the all-of-the-above strategy that the future requires: conservation, electrification and cleaner sources of energy, including renewables. It can only get there if those responsible for charting the path are realistic about the needs.

That might mean asking crypto and data operations to scale back where possible. But the bigger order of business is thinking beyond the next possible round of brownouts — and the next election cycle, too.