Thank you for being a reader of Transition Edge. Please feel free to forward it to friends who you think might enjoy it too.
I’m Grant Symons. I convene Transition Edge to help us understand how we can transition to a low carbon sustainable world using leading thinking and practices.
Welcome to 2022, the 3rd year of the Transition Edge.
Over the past years we have enjoyed having you with us on the journey exploring emerging conditions such as the 'Post Truth' era, the 'Crazy K shaped World', and 'Energy Contraction'. And among a range of other topics we have covered Food Production Complexity, the dizzying heights of Money creation, Speculation and greed and the Critical balances we need to maintain if we are to avoid overshoot and have a sustainable ecosystem.
We have provided you with information and insight into how you might do your best work in these conditions and have laid out the urgent need to downshift energy and resource consumption, develop regenerative practices at scale, and we have provided opportunities to join us on our Real Transition Leaders Programme and growing community.
But do you really need to understand what's on the Edge of Transition?
It seems so. Of all of you who signed up, only 5% have unsubscribed for reasons unknown.(you cant please everyone) The opening rate of the Transition Edge averages about 50% for any given week depending on the topic, apparently for most news letters 8% to 12% is considered good, up to 20% excellent.
So generally, you are very engaged from the perspective of consuming the content, but perhaps not as engaged as you could be or should be, with the issue and action required? Perhaps you could be doing more towards breaking free from the past and learning how to 'downshift' your life and your systems?
So what have you been doing? Can you honestly say any of this has helped you, changed you, inspired you? what have you decided to do differently? Those that provide feedback say they love the consistency and quality of the articles and get wonderful insight, so what next?
But everything is wonderful.
On the face of it and depending on who you are, right now things couldn't be better. Good job, warmer days at the beach - a lovely warm sea to swim in, a good salary that just keeps rolling in, massive property value uplift, working from home most of the time, shares and investments going through the roof...just traded in your old Tesla for the latest model, what isn't there to like about all of this?
Really?, for the discerning reader there is much to dislike.
Lets us nudge you out of your holiday mode for a few moments and remind ourselves of the emergency. The changes that are in progress in the climate, society, institutions of business, government, geopolitical relations and the economic conditions that materially affect our own life and that of our families and friends are profound, and we think they will continue to unfold in 2022.
What concerns us is that society seems to be sleep-walking, unaware of the work to be done - some subjective observations.
- Ongoing denial of impact of ecosystem overshoot
- Increasing hubris, ignorance, indulgence and hedonism
- Evolution of the Post truth era to maintain the illusion of stability
- Increasing belief in celebrity status and virtue signalling
- Rising conflict between Govt/Local Govt priorities and agendas
- Lack of funding for the real work of Transition
- Ongoing lack of common sense and pragmatism
It's as if 'Business as usual' is just plowing on ahead getting further out of sync with what really needs to happen, (possibly at an accelerating rate). Noticed that over the holidays the PM has been absent from nightly news, yet the country still exists?.
Looking ahead for this year - Why we think it will be a continuation of the 'Wild Ride' for us here in New Zealand, macro conditions:
- Ongoing tension between China and USA flows through to the world
- What happens in China internally - A move to strong state control
- What happens in USA internally - Continuing disorder
- Global pandemic response - Unwinding the just in time world
- The squeeze on energy and resource availability (and prices)
- Downstream impacts on food production, construction and cost of living and inflationary pressure
- Market(s) and market values correction
- Leadership and governance incompetence (Public and private)
- Growing gap between Business as usual and Real Transition
- Wild-card - Climate/natural events
We suggest that overall, the levels of risk and opportunity are increasing and that it is wise to increase adaptive capacity and resilience while positioning yourself correctly for the Real work of Transition, there is much work to do.
A ray of light - (Must see film) we hope triggers some progress on Transition
Don't Look Up, is a satirical commentary on the incompetence of the human race to acknowledge imminent threat and collectively mobilise to do anything about it. It points out the massive gap between Business as usual and what Science and Engineering have been pointing at for many years. The portrayal of the power of money, media, business interests, populist beliefs and influence to maintain status-quo is staggering. (Does the Comet hit the Earth?) Not everyone likes it, but the scientists
do, a review from the Guardian here