Transition Edge - The Anatomy of Crisis

Published: Thu, 03/03/22

Transition Edge

March 2022 - Year three of the disrupted decade

Exploring Crisis

Thank you for being a reader of Transition Edge. Please feel free to forward it to friends who you think might enjoy it too.

I’m Grant Symons. I convene Transition Edge to help us understand how we can transition to a low carbon sustainable world using leading thinking and practices.

"Never waste a good crisis"

"A crisis is the only time government gets anything done"

"Only a crisis, actual or perceived, produces real change"

- Milton Friedman

Sounds like a crisis is a unique point in time. Just the use of the word might instil a level of fear or trepidation in some of us, perhaps a level of excitement in others. When it comes to protecting our own comfort, reputation, sanity, interests or indeed life, we all experience crises from time to time. What matters deeply to one person or organisation, may not even be on the radar of another.

Lets get aligned on what we mean:

Crisis definition - (Cambridge dictionary)

a time of great disagreement, confusion or suffering
an extremely difficult or dangerous point in a situation

Crisis origin

krisis - The noun crisis comes from the Latinized form of the Greek word krisis, meaning "turning point in a disease." At such a moment, the person with the disease could get better or worse, it is a critical moment.

Usually a time that passes

From the definition and origin, we understand that a crisis is normally (not always) a relatively short time or phase that is 'critical'. It is the time when things may get much worse (a deepening crisis) or improve, and it might be a time when we are forced to make decisions and take actions, which until that point, were considered unnecessary or not an option.

In some circumstances a prolonged state of crisis may exist, for example a significant scale crisis such as an ongoing war, or ones own psychological state may hold us in a (perceived or real) state of crisis.

Normally, we will experience a level of abnormal frustration, tension, discomfort, fear and perhaps terror or horror as conditions and events change quickly around us. As a result, we make necessary changes in mindset, beliefs and physical state and we may take actions that ensure our survival or survival of those around us, all in a relatively short interval.

Once a crisis has passed and the memory faded, we may look back and wonder what all the fuss was about, as HG Wells quote points out.

Not all crises are created equal:

Consider the scale, warning signal and relevant interval of these examples:

No WI-FI coverage (The teens catastrophe)
Rejection
Home isolation for 10 days
Empty supermarket shelves - rationed toilet rolls
Local Bank branch closed, no ATM machine for 20km
Mid life realisations
Major natural event - Eg Earthquake
Political crisis
Energy crisis
Financial crisis
Economic crisis
Ecological crisis

We see some crises are abrupt and surprising, while others are drawn out and perhaps unfold in a menacing series of mini crises. The time or interval of the unfolding crisis can have a major influence on how individuals, organisations and institutions perceive, understand and respond to changes.

A colleague recently pointed out how efficiently goals can be achieved when delays are minimised, actions are decisive and the goal is clear. This systems dynamics perspective may offer insight into why large institutions can get stuff done...in a crisis.

Crisis patterns

We have abrupt and instantaneous events such as earthquakes that form one category of crises. There is little warning, little time to decide and most action is automatic. There may be cascading crises that follow.

Other crises build over time, in some cases over a long period of time. Through this process tension builds, environmental factors keep changing and historical structures, agreements and arrangements begin to fray. Then there is a trigger, a moment when things break and re-order themselves, typically through a cycle. See Edge article on the Adaptive Cycle.

In the end, a crisis is normally followed by a new era, new hope, rejuvenation and relief from what went before-hand.(perhaps even a joke) "There is always light at the end of the tunnel", "Clouds have silver linings" might sound like clichés, but what can seem like a nightmare at the time more often than not is an opportunity for improvement or betterment in some way, it's how nature works.

Crisis and Risk

Crisis management and Risk Management differ.

Risk management is the proactive identification of Risks and the deliberate actions that follow assessment - such as mitigation, transfer or acceptance of the identified risks.

Crisis management is the preparation for and active management of ones self or organisation through a live crisis. This practice may include proactive work such as scenario analysis and putting in place plans and people to manage the relevant dimensions of the imagined or possible crisis. Examples for an organisation may include crisis management of:

Safety of people
Protection of assets
Brand and reputation management
Customer and trading partner welfare
Post event support

Considerations for functioning in crisis mode

Being prepared for what crisis might emerge for you personally?
Avoiding rash decisions - being prepared for impaired judgement in a crisis
Staying clear on goals and values - maintaining perspective and course
Growing resilience capability ahead of time
Having trusted advisors / colleagues
Ask whether you are crisis blind - what are we missing?

Crisis blindness

Over the past year we have written about many of the crises we face. Every week you readers, clients and colleagues comment about the meta crises of climate change, societal, political, economic turmoil and ecological over-shoot, yet most of us seem to be able to continue our lives without changing much at all?

It is as if we have crisis blindness or perhaps willful blindness.

We all experience it, this is our history and identity we are talking about here, but can we do better?

It is so easy and convenient to bury our heads in the sand or kick the can down the road as an individual, organisation or institution, while hoping that any significant crisis wont happen on our watch or in our back-yard. But if we don't change now, these issues will continue to intensify - is this good enough?

So while 'changeless-ness' seems to be our default position, our advice is to face the threat of crisis everyday, learn and change everyday, and in doing so we may avoid potential future crises. This is part and parcel of being a Real Transition Leader.

This weeks quote

Crisis doesn't create character, it reveals it. ― Denis Leary

Grant Symons - The Transition Guy

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