Hi 

 

 

 

 

At the 2020 Convergence for Carbon Transition Conference in New Zealand, one of the key messages Transition-HQ delivered was that 'The great Transition' is not going to be ..."Business as usual...plus a few tweaks" and that we all ought to be considering new approaches that embraced that condition - namely new approaches to Transition.

 

During the conference and panel discussion the large consulting firms presented and espoused their perspectives of New Zealand's transition and that of its various sectors, and repeated the importance of their road-maps, solutions and case studies. Our message went largely ignored. Their well thought through stories, rehearsed and credible to the untrained ear (not to Transition engineers) were notably right in line with their existing business models and services. Solutions which both the public and private sector are still lapping up. 

 

BUT, with the fullness of time, that world has become even less business as usual-like and navigating the future has become far more challenging than "a few tweaks". So even though the majority still don't get it, we figure that - being a reader of the Edge - you will expect us to hold our position.

 

With this in mind, this week's edition provides you with first hand insights that we hope will help you excel in navigating the future as it unfolds:

Rationale (if you needed convincing)

 

The idea that business as usual, in any form, can continue becomes increasingly absurd every day. The world and civilization is undeniably in ecological over-shoot and the downward slope of virgin resource availability, at least at the quantities required to feed the systems appetite, is starting to show up in everyday life. Just watch transport and food over the next 12 months!

 

The affects of climate change, energy shortages, price inflation and social dislocation are being experienced in our towns and on our TV screens every week. Thinking that we can make a few 'tweaks' that will fix this is utterly ridiculous. How many COP summits and IPCC reports have there been while nothing changes?

 

How impotent is the political and government system to cope with the challenges we face? While current rhetoric around Covid and Russia are visible, recent decisions that will affect our future energy security, while relatively invisible (unless you are interested), indicate a worrying level of incompetence and lack of ownership and accountability. But this shouldn't be a surprise.

 

We now have a system that cannot be transitioned using the same thinking (and gigantic quantities of resources) we used to create it. BAU is toast! It cannot address the complexity we now face.

 

 

• Disassociation and avoidance from the real issues
• Public and private leaders and managers surrounding themselves with communications teams
• Watering down the tough decisions to be generally acceptable by the population, but accelerating ecological overshoot

 

• We are in a 'post normal' world, and it will probably get weirder
• Existing systems of government, politics, trade and modern lifestyles are going to become increasingly strained
• The financial system will be increasingly unreliable
• Control of anything in this emerging condition is a fantasy, trying to achieve it (control) is probably going to ruin what is left of your life
• There will be less resources in future - we'll learn to live within that
• Genuine progress will happen in two places, within us and in our locality (working with others, generating our own and collective  resilience)
• Living every moment to its fullest, being present and open to opportunities will be an advantage
• We will be subject to Transition and Climate change forever
• Human spirit, adaptive capacity and resilience will prevail
• Today's youth will be tomorrows leaders