Transition Edge - The Last Flight - Feedback

Published: Thu, 11/03/22

Transition Edge

Nov 2022 - Year two of the disrupted decade

The Last Flight - Feedback

Thank you for being a reader of Transition Edge. Please feel free to forward it to friends who you think might enjoy it too.

I’m Grant Symons. I convene Transition Edge to help us understand how we can transition to a low carbon sustainable world using leading thinking and practices.

Last week we posed a hypothetical challenge about getting as many people as possible safely from New York to Auckland in the year 2032. You can read the original article here.

Some of you pointed out that the scenario was illogical and unlikely, which is fine, but somewhat missing the point. The idea was to use the challenge as a metaphor for the transition to a sustainable future. OK, so maybe it is a bit too far out on the edge for most of you? How about considering the Edge becomes the middle at some point!

Thanks to those of you that did make the effort, here is a summary of your feedback:

How will the decisions about who gets to travel and who stays be made?
- Has New Zealand passport
- Women with children, those with dependents - prioritised
- Remaining positions drawn from a hat (sortition), with the ability to give pass to another in the pool, up until one day before departure
How will you get as many people back as possible?
- Interior configured to include as many people as possible for the approx.18 hours
- Minimal or no luggage
- Flight at best time / weather conditions
What preparations would you do in the two-weeks before needing to leave?
- Preparing the aircraft for optimal passenger configuration (stacking!)
- Plane gutted; all non-essential weight removed
- Prepare people on what to expect for the flight, what behaviors they may need to employ/observe
- Install extra/backup fuel tanks in cargo hold
- Advanced warning to NZ authorities who will receive flight
What resources would you request from our Amercian friends in the lead-up to departure?
- Accommodation and logistics support close to the point of departure
- Weather forecasting, flight path and time calculation
- Support for those that did not make the flight - referral to local authorities
- Engineering services
How would you prepare those selected for the trip?
- Familiarity with what to expect for the flight, right mindset?
- Safety plans / advise increased risk of the situation
- Passenger agreement to acceptance of risk
- Awareness of humility

Additional comments:

Generally
- This has been a common situation through history (various travel modes)
- People emigrating to NZ +1820s had little or no option of ever returning to UK
- Consumer tourism based on cheap fossil fuel will gradually and eventually disappear. It is unlikely that the people abroad in these times are there without knowing the risks.
- The NZ government may have new regulations that prevent such a scenario happening anyway?
- Air travel prices have started to rise according to recent news articles.
- Awareness of the carbon footprint of flying, particularly long-haul flights is gradually becoming mainstream knowledge.

Thanks again to those that did some thinking, it really is the best way to get yourself into the kind of innovation space that will be required going forward.

This week's quote:

"Understanding is only half of the answer"

- Socrates

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