Canaries are not the only species humans have or still rely on for their ability to provide advance warning:

• Cats are used in Japan to detect mercury contaminated fish. Apparently, they 'dance' as increasing levels cause neurological disturbances.
• Dogs are used for their sense of smell and early susceptibility to some diseases.
• Bats, bees and a range of birds are particularly susceptible to chemical contamination and pollution.
• A range of animal's experience diseases that can jump to humans; Eg, pigs, birds, monkeys etc.

This all sounds wonderful as we get to save our own skins, but what if we consider the entire globe and all its habitats as being 'the coal mine'. 

Canary in a mine - Global reality 

The alarm bells are already ringing. Thousands of species are signaling they are under stress and even more obvious should be the number of species that have already disappeared, or are under serious threat. 

According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s Red List of Threatened Species established in 1964, there are approximately 41,000 species threatened with extinction, including 41% of amphibians, 38% of sharks and rays, 34% of conifers, 33% of reef building corals, 27% of mammals and 13% of birds.

The good news is that there are some great examples of species being saved. We have vast quantities of data and have a good understanding of why extinctions are happening. 

The bad news is we don't have canary resuscitators for the species that are already extinct and despite knowing all of this, we are not doing anywhere near enough to change how we are, to avert a partial or full-scale collapse of the bio-sphere.

In the 'developed world' we tend towards seeing this extinction issue as background noise, an inconvenient truth or something that doesn't need to concern us. Why worry if it is 'somewhere else' and doesn't impact our ability to generate income, maintain buying power and live in the way to which we have become accustomed?

It seems that there isn't a week that goes by that the nightly news doesn't include a good news story about endangered species or an incredible rescue. The reality is, this positive media has us feeling good for 30 seconds, about an isolated instance and is usually followed up with a barrage of advertisements, "Black Friday specials", "Interest free for 6 months", "Buy an EV and get the Govt. subsidy", "Buy now, pay later" "Enjoy resort style retirement".

As a producer, retailer, marketer, advertiser, financier in the current system, this makes absolute sense. It is how we run the current system, create value, improve lives, raise standards of living, keep the economy going, generate GDP and pay tax. There is no sign that this system is changing structurally any time soon, indeed there is much of the population that denies manmade climate change is 'a thing' and is just looking forward to the next bull market.

However, let's not forget that we currently use massive quantities of non-renewable energy and materials to try and keep growing the economy and support a growing population at the levels we have come to know as business as usual. This is unsustainable and the message seems to be sinking in, but do we care enough to make change and if so, how? and how fast?

Truly good news of the future might sound like this:

• The entire population of (name a species) is regenerating at (x)% per year
• Fossil fuel use was reduced by 90% by 2045
• Product use lifecycles increased by a factor of 10 by 2035
• Ingested plastics across all species, including humans reduced by 50% in 10 years 
• Average Global Wellbeing increased by 15% by 2035

Canary in a Mine - Conceptually

If you are a regular reader of the Edge you will know what we try to draw a line between the 'real world' and the 'made-up world'. Lets consider the made-up world.

The made-up world includes abstract theories of economics, the financial system, and most markets. It assumes infinite economic growth and returns on capital that somehow materialise out of productivity gains, savvy takeovers, new technologies, currency manipulation, mergers and acquisitions and navigation of 'predictable' business and economic cycles, and a host of other tricks, such as companies buying back their shares to make them scarcer. This is all supposed to continue as we decouple from fossil energy inputs in favour of renewable energy. (It isnt by the way).

This world tends to be a competitive game with power being accumulated and equated with money. Corporations exist to make money, and this is what they do, relentlessly - to the extent that they have no way of rationally stopping.

In the made-up system, the trick is to get in, make a buck and get out. Load up on debt, leverage on leverage with a future promise of cashing out on top. Like gambling, bets are placed, get in early and get out early before the house of cards comes down. When done on a massive scale and for the 'long term' it is called value investing, but everyone has an exit plan. No matter how we look at it, it is this system that has delivered us to where we are now, 41,000 species on the verge of extinction with no way of stopping.

So, with the road ahead paved with risks and opportunities, do you have your own canary or two?

• The 6 o'clock news?
• A favourite subscription?
• The stock markets?
• The political tit for tat?
• Long term forecasts?
• What banks are doing?
• What is happening on the streets, in your community?
• What your friends say?
• Looking out your window?

Making sense of what is happening, what is emerging, and what is required to respond to change seems logical. Unfortunately, most people and organisations are too busy doing business as usual, do not have the capacity to do the necessary work, choose to ignore it, or are simply unaware of the risks being faced because of the complexity.

Today's systems are complex

Having our own rules of thumb and intuition about transition is a great place to start. Thinking for oneself, asking questions, observing what is happening around us and continuous learning are all important for self, family and community. At a local level this works to support transition where enough people are open to working together on challenges. 

If you are an organisation, sector, or community movement, you should have by now replaced your canary with an early warning system. One that is going to help your response and ongoing resilience.