Transition Edge - The Last Flight

Published: Thu, 10/27/22

Transition Edge

Oct 2022 - Year two of the disrupted decade

The Last Flight

Thank you for being a reader of Transition Edge. Please feel free to forward it to friends who you think might enjoy it too.

I’m Grant Symons. I convene Transition Edge to help us understand how we can transition to a low carbon sustainable world using leading thinking and practices.

This week we bring you a thought experiment - so grab your thinking cap, a pen and paper and get ready to send us your ideas. The year is 2032 and you are heading up a team that is faced with the task of getting the last flight back to Auckland from New York.

No, this is not intended to be some premonition of an apocalyptic, Mad Max, episode where we are predicting the end of the world. That said, we have a wide variety of subscribers who read the Edge, some of whom might say this particular scenario could be a reality sooner than we think possible, and there are others who say that life will carry on as it is... with even better travel options in future!

Generally, we don't know how the real transition will unfold, so we've made it our job in this edition to get us all thinking about different possibilities and pose a logistical puzzle, that requires some possibly challenging emotional decisions and provides some fun with our Yankie friends. This is, in a sense, a possible metaphor for transition.

The plane is the Boeing 787-9. This is the last flight for this 20-year-old plane, due to the fuel shortages, security risks and a collapse of the mass consumer travel industry. The plane will be scrapped and recycled, assuming it makes the journey from New York to Auckland.

Life in New York has changed dramatically in recent years. Faster than predicted sea level rise has tipped the scales on the viability of some parts of the city, especially as extreme weather events now come in on this coast with an extra three to five meters of storm surge. (That's 9.8 feet to 16.4 feet if you are American. The recent storm in Florida - 'Ian' - came with a 13.5 feet surge!)

There are more people wanting to get on the flight than there are seats available. The New Zealand government has asked your team to get as many people back as possible, safely and with no refueling on the way.

Los Angeles used to be a backup refueling option, but the airport is closed to civilian flights now and is exclusively used by the military. Fifty percent of the airport infrastructure is crumbling through lack of investment - a Detroit deja vu moment.

You have two-weeks to prepare the plane and select the passengers.

Those who can't make the flight are faced with the prospect of never returning to NZ, because travel by sea is now both expensive and dangerous. Parts of the USA are prospering, some are becoming increasingly dangerous. Those who stay will need to start new lives.

Climatic conditions have made long-haul flying increasingly risky too. Your crew and passengers could be facing the prospect of running out of fuel over the Pacific if things turn bad. With good weather, the flight will take about 18 hours and weather forecasting is still reliable. Timing will be critical.

Communication lines between NZ and the East Coast of the USA are limited, and the NZ government has left the selection of passengers up to your team. Those wanting to get back represent a cross section of NZ society.

And now the dilemma...

How will the decisions about who gets to travel and who stays be made?
You have received a couple of veiled suggestions as to who must be on the list, perhaps a brown envelope or two are in the offing
How will you get as many people back as possible?
What preparations would you do in the two-weeks before needing to leave?
What resources would you request from our Amercian friends in the lead-up to departure?
How would you prepare those selected for the trip?
Would you put someone else on the list ahead of yourself?

Please hit reply to this email and send us one or two key points, thoughts, ideas, critical decisions you would make.

We will write them up in next week's edition - The Last Flight - Options

Perhaps share this with a friend and ask for their thoughts too! (And suggest they subscribe, the more brains the better)

This week's quote:

"It's not enough to do our best, sometimes we need to do what is required"

- Winston Churchill

Grant Symons - The Transition Guy

We value your thoughts and opinions, please reply to this email with any feedback.

Please feel free to share this article.

Not a subscriber yet? Sign up to get future updates delivered to your inbox here

Lead the Real Transition

A course for those that want to go beyond business as usual – Learn more here

342 Lambton Quay
Wellington Wellington 6011
NEW ZEALAND

Unsubscribe | Change Subscriber Options