What comes next is going to be largely in your hands.

Before we look ahead, let's take a look back at what we created over the past 4 years:

• 185 articles, a circa 200k word collection.
• Opening rate average - 56% (many bloggers are delighted with 12%, you have been a wonderfully engaged group).
• 46,000 impressions (how many times articles were read).
• A significant database of feedback and insights.
• Draft outlines for a further 50+ perspectives.
• Relationships with a small number of people that deeply understand the problem fields and forward pathways - a brains trust who have earned mutual respect.
• Awareness of emerging tools and platforms.
• Evolving insights into how to develop the essence of the body of knowledge.
• Real IP and products.
• Regrets from not being able to help and engage more young people along the way - directly attributable to a lack of funding and support.

Despite the grind, it's looking like the synthesis of this might be an opportunity to create something better, rather than a dead end. 

With a solid foundation in place, why carry on in the same fashion - we have asked ourselves? The answer is we don't need to. 

We have done the hard yards, struggled enough to understand the space in which we can now help those who are serious about helping themselves and others. Possibly meaning, how might we struggle and learn better together going forward? 

Time to wake up folks.

There are no easy answers, magic pills or silver bullets for the disrupted decade. That's right - zip, null, zero...none!  

If you are just starting out, gazing into space dreaming of perfect sustainability, fairy tale endings, soft landings, miracle technologies, or you perhaps are flapping around panicking, because you've just woken up to the fact that the human enterprise is in trouble, then good luck in whatever you try. Properly starting is the best thing you can do right now!

The good and bad news is that we actually need to struggle and 'do the real work' to transition forward. And although starting is critical, we also need to be working within viable and feasible parameters, many of which are not at all obvious. 

Horizon scans, Theories of change, SWOT's, Monitoring and evaluation programs, Systems maps, Financial and Economic models, Artificial intelligence and a whole range of faddish programs all sound great, but will most likely take you in the wrong direction without the fundamentals in place. This is a core part of our learning.

Over the past four years of research, consulting, conversations and writing we have collectively created a foundation. It might be worth considering building on that for whatever our challenge or opportunity is? 

Why?

We really are facing into a challenging future, only most folks either don't know it, are in denial, are desensitised, or overwhelmed and perhaps over caring. Here is a sample of some of the questions, risks and opportunities to be navigated:

• How will populations and economies around the world cope with the relentless and evolving conditions related to climate change?
• Going forward how might we create the capability in our people to understand and discern reality from non-reality, when the majority of content on the internet and in our lives will be created by or using AI? There are estimates of 90% by 2025.
• Why and how are we going to spend trillions of dollars each year for decades on an energy transition when it is known that the new system that will only ever deliver between 50% and 70% of the energy we use today?
• How long can change and transition be driven by financial measures only? Expecting positive business cases based on marginal/incremental growth is hitting severe headwinds.
• How long can organisational and institutional change be implemented through cost-cutting and brute force, when we know that the future needs to be delivered by people at the front line, working closely with each other and with nature in mind.
• How might politicians and Govts face into the enormous and relentless challenge of doing more with less, as current political processes only take us in the wrong direction?
• How can we ensure we are worrying about the right things and building the right capabilities for what lies ahead, instead of worrying about the wrong things and investing in dead ends?
• Understanding the deceptions about 'net zero business' being deployed through 'business model innovation', which is code for using money to disguise unsustainable energy and resource use, while privatising profits and socialising costs.
• Reconciling the critical action required to sustain life and improve environmental conditions with technology fantasies.
• Finding the right balance between what we need, want and are able to get in a world in transition. Finding and travelling the civil and just pathway to get there - is what we call Real Transition Leadership.

No easy answers.

These are a fraction of the questions and problems that need to be worked on continuously and there are no easy answers. 

As we have seen over the past four years, transition is upon us, like it or not. There is every reason to believe that this is just the beginning of more change and disruption; it will in fact continue to be the disrupted decade and more.

The workload is growing, the required skillsets evolving, and our ways of working are about to flip with the advent of AI. This will be good and bad.

New capabilities for transition need to develop in real time through projects, coaching, research or curating community engagement. This is the real and difficult work that needs to be advanced. But the vast majority of today's business as usual politics, methodologies and services are taking us in the wrong direction. Some are blatant and in plain sight, others are 'business as usual in fancy dress', hampering progress or distracting us away from the tough decisions and real work.

The work of the Real Transition needs to be properly exposed and resourced; you are either learning and transitioning - or you are not.  

We have explored and held the space for a long while, but the edge is a nerve racking and poorly funded place, often ignored, ridiculed, despised and sometimes attacked. Over the years, some of you have provided your insights and empathy because you have been there yourselves and we have greatly appreciated the support.

Still stuck, perhaps happily?

Most of us still probably don't comprehend the full extent of what we are facing in to and are happy to tow the corporate line, look after our cushy job or existing business, or have simply given up worrying. 

Perhaps you have read the Edge to justify your own position or worldview? And that's fine - we understand that is your business. Going forward it is increasingly in our collective interests to get clearer about our future direction and role in the transition, perhaps now is the time to reflect and rethink?

We are all overdue for a wakeup call. Those who are biting the bullet now are likely to be well positioned as things get tougher. But don't take our word for it. Reflect on the past Edges and other contrarian sources and come to your own conclusion about how to move forward.

For those interested in doing the real work of transition and want us with them on the journey, let's talk and work out what an equitable relationship looks like. 

How might we do that?

We are keen to hear your thoughts. 

Over the years the following suggestions have been mooted:

• Create an online community where anyone that is interested in transition strategy, practice and examples could have a continuous and interactive relationship. This would be curated and supported and would require a subscription.
• Create sector or industry specific groups that can explore and progress their unique challenges. THQ could curate and support these.
• Create a dedicated trust fund that donors can contribute to with specific objectives - eg. developing emerging leaders, helping communities etc. 
• We continue to provide the occasional update about what we are up to and noticing. 

Your thoughts, suggestions are most welcome. Just hit the reply key and drop us a note.

Next week we wrap up with thanks to you all and the many folks that have contributed along the way.

Check out our Real Transition Leadership programme. Testimonials at Real Transition Leaders | Transition-HQ (thq.nz).

This weeks quote

We are drowning in information, while starving for wisdom. The world henceforth will be run by synthesizers, people able to put together the right information at the right time, think critically about it, and make important choices wisely.  - E.O. Wilson