Here Comes 2024
We have passed the winter solstice (the photo is the sunset on December 22 as seen from our house), so now the days in the Northern Hemisphere are starting to get longer while those in the South begin to shorten. This also signals that a new year (according to humanity’s rather arbitrary calendar) is about to begin.
Are you ready for the new year?
No, we’re not either, but here it comes anyway ...
It’s certain to be a tumultuous one, and we worry that the world is slipping ever more deeply into chaos. Can we get some previews of what’s coming?
Looking Ahead
Achieving success at both strategy and innovation requires a clear view of the future, yet the burden of uncertainty is always heavy. Hence, a central tenet of effective endeavors in both fields is the willingness to consider a wide range of possibilities even when you think you know what’s going to happen. So we play with “What If” thought experiments in order to avoid getting locked into a single way of
thinking. To help us, each December The Economist magazine publishes a preview of the coming year called “The World Ahead,” with ample speculation couched in appropriately thoughtful language and adequate disclaimers. Here are some of their particularly interesting observations for the new year:
“For the first time ever, more than half the world’s population lives in a country which will hold national elections in 2024, and possibly 2 billion people will vote in more than 70 nations.” Among them are Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, and Taiwan. Oh, and also the US will likely see the Biden-Trump rematch that the majority of Americans wish they did not have to see. (Page
7)
The election in Taiwan is to be held January 13, and it is geopolitically significant because of the intense pressure that China has been exerting toward reunification through its repeated threats to invade. One of Taiwan’s major parties is generally pro-China and wishes to reduce tension by strengthening ties with the mainland. The other party is strongly in favor of independence and has been working to improve
relations with America, much to the annoyance of China. Consequently, the two sides frame the election quite differently. For the pro-unification party, the election presents a choice “between peace and war;” for the pro-independence party, the election is a choice between “democracy and autocracy.” This is a classic “rock and hard place” situation, and it will be very interesting to see which frame the Taiwanese people choose. Their choice will likely have
very far-reaching consequences (as will the choice Americans make next November 5). (Page 35)
Speaking of China, its real estate sector has been struggling for the past few years, with loan defaults by major developers, slowing sales, and thousands of projects stalled in the midst of construction, or even before construction has started. The Economist wonders what would happen if the sector collapsed entirely, if, for example, home prices fell by as much as half. China’s “fragile economic
recovery would stop, with implications for the world economy. More dangerous for the Communist Party would be the impact on social stability. People do not take to the streets to protest against one-party rule. But they might do so to protest against a big fall in their main investment.” (Page 41) (Urban youth unemployment in China is already at a record high of 23%, foretelling more troubles ahead.)
Extreme heat due to climate change is becoming a major challenge for cities around the world. In Phoenix, Arizona, for example, a heat wave in July 2023 kept daytime temperatures above 109˚ F / 43˚ C for days on end. A recent study concluded that if the same thing happens again (which is a near certainty), but this time in conjunction with a major power failure due presumably to an overstressed electric grid,
there would be perhaps 13,000 deaths, and half the city’s residents would be hospitalized. Get ready … (Page 27)
(NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio, Key and Title by uploader (Eric Fisk) - https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp)
Something guaranteed to happen in 2024 is a total solar eclipse that will traverse a wide section of North America on April 8, from Mazatlan, Mexico across Texas, the Ohio Valley, Western New York State to the Canadian Maritimes.
The World Ahead offers about 100 pages of very useful and provocative insights, and it’s worth tracking down a copy at a newsstand or their web site.
The Economist's The World Ahead 2024
A Beautiful New Book on Climate Change
Speaking of useful and provocative insights, our friend and co-author of our 2021 book Net Zero City has just published a beautiful and compelling book about climate change that is written for children 8 to 15 years old. Called Mission Zero, the book invites you to “Join Omar and Sara, our young heroes, as they explore the interconnected realms of food, energy, and water. A sudden health emergency in the family leads Omar and Sara to understand the far-reaching impact of the climate crisis. They make it their mission to explore solutions tackle climate change. From harnessing renewable energy to capturing rain water, cultivating food through new methods and preserving biodiversity, their quest takes them on a journey of exploring groundbreaking technologies and ingenious solutions for sustainable living.”
In case you were wondering how they produced that incredible cover illustration (and every page in the entire book is just as beautiful), it may not surprise you to learn that it was done as a collaboration between the authors, the designers, and AI. You will certainly be seeing more of that in the year ahead.
As of today the book is available from Amazon in UAE, so if you are located in the Middle East you should check it out. Hopefully it will soon will be available globally.
Mission Zero (only in the UAE)
Two Innovation Stories
The 2023 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine was awarded to researchers Katalin Kariko and Drew Weissman, pioneers in the development of mRNA vaccine techniques which were the foundations of some critically important Covid vaccines, and which doubtless saved millions of lives. However, during the course of their research some years before Covid arrived, Dr. Kariko was unable to persuade her
colleagues of its importance, and was even demoted at her university because her superiors thought the research was a dead end. Later they wrote a scientific paper presenting their discoveries, but the paper was rejected for publication by the journal Nature, and only later and after a bit of a fight was the paper accepted by another journal, Immunity. (The Economist, October 7, 2023.)
This a just a small reminder of the great many innovation stories that follow a similar line, disbelieving colleagues and superiors, rejection by the main institutions of the field, a struggle to be heard, but in the end vindication through solid scientific findings. While these experiences only rarely lead to a Nobel Prize, the fact that innovators and would-be innovators face technical as well as institutional and
bureaucratic challenges along the way can never be understated in the innovation field.
These social dynamics of science were examined in the brilliant and classic work The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, published by Thomas S. Kuhn in 1962. It is as much relevant today as it was then. In the book, Kuhn explains the implications of any revolutionary shift for the community of scientists working in that field, noting: “The invention of new theories regularly, and appropriately, evokes the
same response from some of the specialists on whose area of special competence they impinge. For these scientists the new theory implies a change in the rules governing the prior practice of normal science. Inevitably, therefore, it reflects upon much scientific work they have already successfully completed. That is why a new theory is seldom or never just an increment to what is already known. Its assimilation requires the reconstruction of prior theory and the re-evaluation of prior
fact.” And hence it is personally as well as professionally disruptive, which accentuates the sense of drama and heightens the stakes. Suddenly, a great many of the participants have something, and possibly a lot, to lose.
Those who have something to lose naturally resist, hence the significant impact of social dynamics on the scientific journey towards more knowledge. It’s not difficult to see how Kuhn’s framework applies to politics, and he didn’t miss the connection either. “The genetic aspect of the parallel between political and scientific development should no longer be open to doubt. Political revolutions
aim to change political institutions in ways that those institutions themselves prohibit. Their success therefore necessitates the partial relinquishment of one set of institutions in favor of another, and in the interim, society is not fully governed by institutions at all.” Hence the phase of power vacuum, very often a violent one as rival groups vie for control. “… society is divided into competing camps or parties, one seeking to defend the old institutional
constellation, the others seeking to institute some new one. And once that polarization has occurred, political recourse fails.” (Page 93)
This provides a very useful perspective on our current political and geopolitical situations, and doubtless comes into play in nearly all of the national elections that are taking place in 2024. We are in the midst of a series of fundamental changes across all of global society that are seriously challenging to our institutions and our cognitive frames of reference. The turmoil that occurs in the regular course of science
provides a convenient mirror in which we can also see our broader psychological and social challenges.
The second innovation story is a technical one about hypodermic needles, such as the ones used to deliver those mRNA-derived vaccines. Needles hurt, and are a common source of anxiety as well as pain. Around 16 billion injections were given in 2018 (that was before Covid…), so lots of opportunity to improve lives for the many children and some adults who are terrified of them. Could they hurt less? Scientists are
working to develop new technologies for human use by copying innovations from nature. How?
Mosquitos often bite us, but we rarely feel it because of the shape of the mosquito’s needle and the way it inserts it disguise what’s happening, and thus enables the mosquito to attain its take-out meal. Wasps also use needle-like structures to drill into far into wood and fruits, in this case to lay their eggs. And some worms and aphids have evolved useful needle-like structures as well, all of which provide
scientists with promising approaches to apply to our persistent needle anxiety. (The Economist, June 3, 2023.)
The broader category for such pursuits is sometimes called “Biomimicry,” or more simply, “copying nature.” Nature has been an abundant source of inspiration from the earliest ancient times until today, and certainly will continue to be for the future. If you’re interested in biomimicry there is a very fine book by that title, as well as abundant online resources from the Biomimicry
Institute, https://www.biomimicry.org/, where they suggest, “Humanity’s Biggest Challenges; Nature’s Proven Solutions.”
A Global Community of Innovators
We are happy to report that InnovationLabs is now partnering with GIMI, the Global Innovation Management Institute. GIMI, with 16,000 members in 116 locations, has adopted our 6-hour online training program in Design Thinking for their online academy. If you’re interested in taking the course and getting the certification that comes when you complete the exam, then check it out at:
https://www.giminstitute.org/product/cpi-design-thinking-certification/
The full Innovation Mastery course is still available, as always and for the ridiculously low price of $99, at Mastery.Innovationlabs.com
•••
With that, we wish you all the best for the new year!
And as always, we welcome your comments on this newsletter, and anything else you may want to discuss about innovation.
Yours,
~ Langdon
•••
By the way, our next book, Hello Future!, is coming along quite nicely, and should be out some time this winter.
But if you’re too excited to wait for Hello Future!, there are 16 other excellent volumes in the Innovation Mastery library to keep you informed and entertained!
•••
About InnovationLabs
InnovationLabs is recognized worldwide as one of the most helpful and important innovation consulting firms. We help our clients achieve world-class innovation prowess by designing innovation systems and tools, implementing innovation programs and departments, and providing fun and enlightening innovation trainings. If it’s got anything to do with innovation, we’re your key resource.
•••
Click here to download our brochure on InnovationLabs
•••
Langdon Morris is Senior Partner of InnovationLabs, one of the world’s leading consulting firms working in the areas of strategy and innovation. He is author or coauthor of more than ten books on innovation. To learn more please visit www.innovationlabs.com/
This book is about important interventions, integrations, and innovations, and about how to conceive, design and implement them
in a meaningful way for a new or existing city. It offers a Transformation Roadmap for cities, providing multifaceted pathways to overcome the Climate Emergency by attaining Net Zero.
Continue the conversation!
Find us on these social networking sites: