Now those stats for the 'Freebooter' Handicap Chase...
On the overall Race Trends front it isn't actually one of the better races... which won't be an issue for me as I'll have a wealth of notes and angles for the runners anyway (handicap chasers taking up the highest percentage of my horse notes)...
...but I did uncover a very interesting stat/angle for the race, concerning where the winners ran Last Time Out (LTO)...
That angle being...
15 of the 26 winners ran at the CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL LTO
No massive surprise there... but when you look a bit closer it works out as 58% of the winners from only 41% of overall runners...
And as always I like to give the figures a bit of a tighten up... and once I had a bit of a deeper dive I came up with the following...
Ran at Cheltenham Festival LTO (and did NOT Pull-Up) | 0-1 previous Handicap Chase wins | SP 12/1 or less (at Aintree)
...which returned figures of...
13/56 | 23% S/R | +£43.75 - W&P 28/56 | 50% S/R
(E/W = +£59.10) | 57% above
expectation
*I knocked out the 2 meetings that were within 3-weeks of Cheltenham, they were tricky ones for horses to be running to their best...
Obviously this angle won't find you the winner every year... I wouldn't expect it to... but it's a decent angle to have on your side, especially since it pulls at a 50% strike-rate on the Win & Place side of things...
I'll be highlighting the qualifiers to NTF Members in my Day 3 Aintree Festival race day guide (remember, the above angle concerns the handicap chase due to be run at 2:30pm next Saturday, 13th April...) and using it to help me paint an overall picture of the race... before deciding where my own money will be
going...
