Now for those Aintree stats...
And today I'm focusing on...
Previous Aintree Festival winners...
Are these types worth backing or should they be avoided?
I'll let the stats do the talking...
Record of horses running at the Aintree Grand National Festival that had previously WON at the Aintree Grand National Festival...
(Since 2008)
41/314 | 13% S/R | +£204.89 BFLSP - W&P 94/314 | 30%
S/R
(2% below exp) | E/W = +£40.07
A good start... some healthy
profits to Betfair SP if backing blind... but as always I love to tighten things up... so let's get stuck into a bit of that...
Drop the young and the old...
6yo-11yo
41/278 |
15% S/R | +£240.89 BFLSP - W&P 87/278 | 31% S/R
(5% above exp) | E/W = +£90.52
Younger than 6yo & older than 11yo
0/36, 7p
————
Concentrate on the top end races...
Class 1
40/282 |
14% S/R | +£233.83 BFLSP - W&P 90/282 | 32% S/R
(3% above exp) | E/W +£88.11
Class 2
1/32, 3p
————
Concentrate on those that have had at least 3 starts in current season...
3+ seasonal starts
40/249 | 16% S/R | +£262.42 BFLSP - W&P 79/249 | 32% S/R
(13% above exp) | E/W = +£107.57
2 or less seasonal starts
1/65, 14p
————
And finally...
Drop those that failed to complete Last Time Out (LTO)...
Completed race LTO
40/259 | 15% S/R | +£241.07 BFLSP - W&P 81/259 | 31% S/R
(8% above exp) | E/W = +£101.08
Failed to Complete race LTO
1/55, 12p
----
Pulling it all together gives...
Previously WON at Aintree GN Festival | 6yo-11yo running in a Class 1 race | 3+ starts in current season | Completed race LTO
38/186 | 20% S/R | +£303.54 BFLSP - W&P 66/186 | 35% S/R
(30% above exp) | E/W = +£186.43
Nice 👌
Only ONCE
since 2008 was there NOT a winner at Aintree on this angle... and that came in 2021... there was no Aintree Grand National meeting in 2020 due to Covid... which likely explains why the angle didn't produce a winner in 2021...
So I think it is safe to
say that YES, previous Aintree Festival winners ARE worth backing...
It's probably not an angle I would personally follow blindly... but I do have the
angle plugged into one of my databases and I will definitely be using it as part of my overall Aintree analysis for this weeks action... and hell, it may be so damn muddy at Aintree this week that it will be an even BIGGER bonus to have previous winning experience of Aintree on the CV! Might be a case of some horses engaging autopilot as they won't be able to see anything for all the damn mud that will be flying about!! 🫣
