Afternoon

...unfortunately I think that's probably a bit of wishful thinking from Liverpool's most famous sons... the theme tune for this week will likely be their B-side to Paperback Writer... 'RAIN' 😏

The wet weather doesn't look like it's relenting any time soon... so best start looking out for any mud-lovers set to run this week at Aintree...

Which is kind of what I have done in the email for you...

Before I get onto that...

Doors to the NTF Aintree service are now OPEN

Day 1 Aintree decs (Thursday) are now locked and loaded and I'll be getting stuck into them this afternoon, which should allow me to get the NTF Members analysis out nice and early tomorrow...

Analysis you can make full use of by subscribing to...⤵️

>>>NTF 2024 Aintree Grand National Service

I'll be closing the doors on Wednesday evening so I'm fully focused on one thing and one thing only... producing high level Aintree analysis for NTF members...

Now for those 'mud-loving' stats I was mentioning...

I decided to have a look at any Aintree races since the start of 2016 that had been run on ground officially described as 'Soft' or 'Heavy'...

And there have been a few... 

132 of the 421 races run at Aintree since the start of 2016 have been run on Soft or Heavy ground... 

...almost a third of them... so no massive surprise that we'll likely see testing ground at the track this week... for all if it doesn't stop raining soon it may be the most testing it has been at the National meeting for quite some time!

Using those 132 Soft & Heavy ground races, I wanted to see if...

a) any SIRES stood out

and

b) if any TRAINERS stood out

Here's what I found...

Sires...

The following bunch caught my eye...

MIDNIGHT LEGEND

6/34 | 18% S/R | +£23.91 - W&P 10/34 | 29% S/R

KAYF TARA

5/38 | 13% S/R | +£11.07 - W&P 11/38 | 29% S/R

MILAN

5/26 | 19% S/R | +£17.56 - W&P 8/26 | 31% S/R

FLEMENSFIRTH (W&P number caught my eye)

4/59 | 7% S/R | +£46.38 - W&P 18/59 | 31% S/R

WALK IN THE PARK

4/13 | 31% S/R | +£20.84 - W&P 6/13 | 46% S/R

KAPGARDE

3/18 | 17% S/R | +£32.07 - W&P 7/18 | 39% S/R

(stats are the record of sires offspring on Aintree Soft or Heavy since 2016)

It's a bit of a rough & ready approach... I wouldn't rely too heavily on it... but it's something to factor in to the wider picture... could make all the difference if the mud really starts to fly...

Trainers...

NICKY HENDERSON (Non-Handicaps)

9/30 | 30% S/R | +£24.45 - W&P 12/30 | 40% S/R

DAN SKELTON (Ridden by H Skelton | 4yo-7yo)

8/34 | 24% S/R | +£173.11 - W&P 18/34 | 53% S/R

PAUL NICHOLLS (1-5 seasonal runs | 2m5f or less)

9/39 | 23% S/R | +£23.90 - W&P 15/39 | 38% S/R

N TWISTON-DAVIES (0-3 seasonal runs | SP 10/1 or less)

9/28 | 32% S/R | +£12.64 - W&P 12/28 | 43% S/R

WILLIE MULLINS (4yo-8yo | Won 1 of last 4 | DSLR <57)

7/24 | 29% S/R | +£26.77 - W&P 15/24 | 63% S/R

Again, like the Sire stats, it's a bit of a rough and ready approach, but the above five trainers have some solid stats at Aintree when the ground is on the testing side... and it's something to factor into the overall picture...

Keep the stats in mind for this week's Aintree action...

Cheers and happy (Aintree) punting

Ben (NTF)

p.s if you missed the FREE Aintree Guide I sent out last week you can get it on the below link...

>>>FREE AINTREE GUIDE

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