Paris Reality

Published: Fri, 11/20/15

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We “Have Contained” ISIS
 

A mere 10 hours before the attack news broke on the Paris attacks, President Obama went on ABC and announced, we “have contained” ISIS.  John Podhoretz writes:

As a matter of pure fact, it wasn’t true. As a matter of strategy, it was a disastrous thing to say for a man who had promised only a year ago to destroy the group — a signal that once again he was circumscribing a goal he himself had set. And it suggests what the president wants most of all is for Americans to believe they are not at risk. This was his shameful goal in 2012 when he denied the truth about the Benghazi attacks in order to preserve his campaign slogan about ending wars rather than beginning them. And it was his shameful goal as well in that ABC interview.

Read more from Mr. Podhoretz here.


 

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Paris Reality
 

bataclan theatre “Stay out of the area around the Stade de France in Saint-Denis, a northern suburb of Paris.” This explicit warning was given to Debbie and me by a local French friend years ago before our initial trip to Paris. It has been reported that on the evening of 13 November there were three suicide bombings near the Stade de France. Mass shootings at the Bataclan theatre in Paris’ 11th arrondissement account for 89 of the initially reported 129 attack deaths.

“No Go” zones in France are so designated as areas where only Muslims can go. The police even have a problem in these areas. The zones are more officially designated as Zones Urbaines Sensibles.

There are “No Go” zones in Saint-Denis. And there is a “No Go” zone in the 11th as well as in the 10th. There is also a “No Go” zone in both Paris’ outer 17th and 19th districts, two in the 20th and three in the 18th of Paris’ total 20 arrondissements (districts).

Élysée_Palace_2009In sum, the recent Paris terrorist attacks were in areas of Paris where Debbie and I had plenty of advance intelligence to not visit. If you are like the majority of American tourists, you will concentrate your stay in the 1st, 2nd, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th and 16th. Your secondary list will include visits to the 3rd, 4th and 14th arrondissements. That is your complete field of play, so to stay. As far as hotel accommodations, Debbie and I confine our hotel visits to the 6th, 7th, 8th, and 16th. All of these are a long way from any Zones Urbaines Sensibles.

When we were in Paris last fall there had been a marked increase in security, especially in the 8th near our hotel, just over a block from the Élysée Palace, the official residence of the president of France.

Over this week and next I will be posting a multi-part series that will deal with radical Muslim terrorism from its 21st century origins to the recent Paris attacks. From the top, this radical Muslim terrorism is the result of one word—oil. And the country most responsible for fanning the flames of terrorism? Saudi Arabia. Stay tuned.

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Stock Market Beauty Contest: Part II
 

You know from Part I that this stock market is a beauty contest. Five companies account for two-thirds of the returns year-to-date for the S&P 500 Index. They are: Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook, and Amazon.

It has been my experience that investors make the grave mistake of confusing index investing with diversification.

Owning the S&P 500 does not mean you’re diversified.

Owning the S&P 500 means you own a market-cap weighted index of stocks where the companies with the largest market-cap have the most influence over its direction.

Like sheep heading to slaughter, investors continue to pile into index funds with false confidence: “Hey, Jack Bogle and Warren Buffet recommended it, what could go wrong?”

The Vanguard Group is the largest provider of index-tracking products. I love Vanguard. It has pulled in $196 billion of investor cash through October. It is on pace to beat last year’s record haul of $216 billion. But, right now, I would never own the Vaunguard 500 Index.

Life is good while the money train keeps chugging along. But let’s not confuse indexing with diversification. This stock market is a beauty contest and the bulk of this train consists of only five cars.

fab five



Related posts:

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The “Crackpots Club”
 

Pat Buchanan looks at recent commentary from leading Republicans relative to ISIS, Syria and Vladimir Putin. Mitt Romney writes in Sunday’s Washington Post:

We must wage the war to defeat the enemy. … (Obama) must call in the best military minds from the United States and NATO, actually listen to what they have to say and finally construct a comprehensive strategy that integrates our effort with the Kurds, Turks, Saudis, Egyptians and Jordanians. … Now is the time, not merely to contain the Islamic State…Now is the time, not merely to contain the Islamic State, but to eradicate it once and for all.”

But Pat asks, “Why did he (Romney) not mention Russia, Iran, Assad, and Hezbollah. All of which also wish to eradicate ISIS?”

Pat continues:

Sens. John McCain and Lindsey Graham want U.S. ground troops sent into Syria and Iraq. But as Turkey has an army of 500,000 next door and Assad’s army would happily help wipe out ISIS, why not let Arab and Turkish boys do the fighting this time?

Yet New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is ready to rumble.

“Well, the first thing you do is you set up a no-fly zone in Syria, and you call Putin, and you say to him, ‘Listen, we’re enforcing a no-fly zone, and that means we’re enforcing it against everyone, and that includes you. So, don’t test me.’”

There is simply no end to the potential for unintended consequences from poorly thought out rhetoric as outlined above. I see no mention of just exactly what national interest of America is being compromised in Syria. As for no-fly zones, ISIS has no air force. As for national interest, Russia has a significant national interest at risk, if Assad is allowed to be taken out of the game to the benefit of ISIS. Russia leases a naval installation from Syria in Tartus on the Mediterranean. This is Russia’s only Mediterranean repair and replenishment base for Russian warships headed to the the Black Sea bases through the Turkish Straits. In terms of capabilities, the Russian naval facility does not offer a lot, but a facility it is, and unlikely to be relinquished lightly by Vladimir Putin.

Tartus

Pat Buchanan concludes, “If Putin wants to enlist in the war against ISIS, sign him up.”

Related video:

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Senator Feinstein Sharply Contradicts President Obama
 

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Cali.), Vice Chairman of the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, voices her strong concerns over ISIS, saying it’s not contained, on MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell Reports:

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EMP Attack: When the Lights go Out
 

Ted Koppel talks about his new book Lights Out: A Cyberattack, A Nation Unprepared, Surviving the Aftermath, here:

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R.I.P Stephen Paul Turco
 

arlington national cemetaryR.I.P Stephen Paul Turco, former U.S. Army Vietnam helicopter pilot and my long time best friend in Key West.

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Obama Keeping States in the Dark over Syrian Refugees
 

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal has written a letter to Obama protesting the first wave of Syrian refugees into New Orleans:

Last week, the city of New Orleans began receiving its first wave of Syrian refugees. As with former immigration crises and federal relocation policy, Louisiana has been kept in the dark about those seeking refuge in the state. It is irresponsible and severely disconcerting to place individuals, who may have ties to ISIS, in a state without the state’s knowledge or involvement.

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Putin’s Objective in Syria
 

vladimir putin

Vladimir Putin intends to secure Russia’s Mediterranean naval facility in Tartus Syria.

Putin recognizes that his natural allies are the Assad regime the Iranians (Shia) and the Shia militias like Hezbollah. These are the groups who can be relied upon by Putin to fight on the ground to extinguish ISIS and potentially save the Alawites in the process. He will arm these groups for the fight.

First, Putin will need to knock out the Sunni militias, enemies of ISIS that they are.

Eventually Putin’s heavy artillery will be devastating to ISIS.

While Mr. Putin pursues his nationalistic interests fueled by the likes of Alexander Dugin (Read more on Dugin here, here, here and here), he is fast turning Russia into a financial banana republic. Because of his militaristic adventures, the West has slapped sanctions on Russia that have teeth. The Russian stock market has crashed, wiping out oligarch wealth. The currency has cratered, making it prohibitively expensive for Russia to import badly needed technology from the West. And the Russian economy has dived into recession. Should Mr. Putin continue to push a militaristic national agenda, that the West opposes, further sanctions will be imposed sending the Russian economy into a potential death-spiral if the stock market and the currency both slide into a free fall.

Notwithstanding Putin’s serious financial position, he is likely to push forward aggressively in Syria as his efforts, though they may not be openly trumpeted by the West, serve America and Europe’s best interests. ISIS must be totally obliterated. And someone is going to have to suffer substantial ground casualties, collateral damage and unintended consequences in the process. Who better than Mr. Putin?

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