A third is to learn about the character of the leaders who shape policy and especially those who have the power to make decisions that change society.

This third method may be the least accurate at predicting the years ahead, but it is often the most interesting of the three.

David Maraniss has helped Americans understand the character of our current President in his new book, Barack Obama: The Story.

Maraniss is a Pulitzer Prize-winning biographer, and he tells us several key traits that help us understand our top executive.

For example, according to Maraniss, Barack Obama is loathe to take risks until he has thought through every detail. As a result, he avoids taking many risks, but often ends up taking a big risk when time runs out and he must act.

Thus his presidency has consisted of few singles or doubles, to use a baseball analogy, but a few well-placed home runs such as passing health care and executing Osama bin Laden.

This methodology gives his critics evidence of a president lacking in consistent leadership and bungling too many things as the months pass, and it provides his supporters with a list of significant successes that only a truly top achiever could attain.

At any given time, the weekly talk shows and nightly news emphasize a set of given concerns or a hot topic.

Barack Obama seldom follows the news cycle in his thinking, however, which leads critics to say he is out of touch and at the same time leaves supporters wondering what their leader is doing--until he surprises everyone.

Such surprises have come at seemingly strange times through the Obama presidency.

The President, Maraniss suggests, is often focused on an issue that the media has written off as finished, old news, until the President takes action.

Many thought the health care issue was over and lost in the fall of 2009, but the President surprised Washington and the nation in the spring of 2010 by reintroducing it at a time that it could pass.

Likewise, most Americans thought the hunt for bin Laden was basically over until the President announced that he had been killed.

Most Americans assumed the immigration debate would drag on for years, yet in one announcement the President ended deportation of millions of immigrants who came to the U.S. as children.

Again, this is Barack Obama's modus operandi: let things seemingly dwindle away, then strike when the odds of success are high and the opposition isn't expecting anything.

By the time Republicans gear up to a full response, the President is on to another agenda.

The announcements have been largely rhetorical, but in each case Obama's opponents have vocally responded in ways that pushed people in these constituencies firmly into the Obama camp.

The Republicans have done nothing to counter any of this, at least not in ways that energize the important swing voters.

Whatever your political views--however much you like or dislike President Obama's policies--he is a brilliant politician.

If you are an Obama supporter, this is seen as high leadership. Critics see it as manipulative and a little bit Machiavellian. But nobody who is closely following the facts denies that it is effective.

Regarding the 2012 presidential election, those who feel that Obama's failures in the last three years and his administration's inability to turn around the economy spell sure defeat on election day would do well to rethink their position.

As much as some of his opponents want to paint him as a bungling do-gooder who is "in over his head," the record shows a pragmatic and shrewd politician.

The American electorate may be fed up with the economy to the point that they'll vote for change in November, but don't count out Barack Obama until the last votes are tallied.

Moreover, while most conservatives will vote for Romney and most progressives for Obama, the election will almost certainly be decided by independents in battleground states (Pennsylvania, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Florida)--swing voters who care more about leadership potential than ideology or policy.

And let's be clear, good instincts on timing and the ability to effectively use surprise are interpreted by many swing voters as strong indications of leadership ability.

If Obama has a glaring weakness, it may be his reticence in admitting mistakes or taking responsibility when his administration miscalculates or fails.

Swing voters have learned to tune out the rhetoric of both Left and Right.

And here's the dirty little secret about the election: most swing voters are still undecided.

In an ABC News/Washington Post poll in mid-June, independent voters dislike the economic plans of both Obama and Romney.

Obama has more favorable support for his plan (38% over Romney's 35%), but Romney's plan has less unfavorables (47% versus Obama's 54% unfavorable).

The answer is, in fact, exactly what President Obama has been doing.

For example, what if President Obama uses the rest of 2012 to roll out a seemingly-random series of surprise announcements and arguments--each garnering support from another significant group of voters?

Then, in a huge surprise, he shifts strongly to one key message that promises something swing voters feel is a compelling vision for the next four years.

If the President follows his typical pattern, nearly everyone will be shocked by the exact message and especially the timing of this big shift, and critics will say that he only rolled it out for political purposes.

Years later, everyone will look back and realize that he said exactly what was needed with surprising yet impeccable timing.

That's vintage Barack Obama, and if we expect something different in the 2012 election we're not dealing in reality.

This may be the most compelling story in the election, but only if he can convince swing voters that his brand of turnaround will directly benefit them--rather than just those in privileged homes.

Interestingly, as Time Magazine's Mark Halperin pointed out, neither Mitt Romney nor Barack Obama see themselves as politicians.

Romney views himself as a businessman, and Obama considers himself a leader of social reform--politics is simply a means, not the end, for both candidates.

Indeed, neither seems particularly comfortable in the political arena.

Such studies of personality seldom tell us the big trends ahead.

Historical forces and, even more powerfully, systemic realities inherent in our governmental, political and economic model shape the future.

For example, as long as Washington is the power center of our society, regulation will likely increase and government will grow--regardless of which candidate or party is in office.

More surprises are coming in 2012, and some of them will sway the election--and the future of our nation.

So what's ahead?

Expect a series of surprise announcements in the months ahead, each targeted to gain the support of some significant voting block, and ignore what most liberal and conservative critics say about them.

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Oliver DeMille is the founder and former president of George Wythe University, a co-founder of the Center for Social Leadership, and a co-creator of TJEd.

Oliver is dedicated to promoting freedom through leadership education. He and his wife Rachel are raising their eight children in Cedar City, Utah.

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