TheDailyGold: Gold Has Bullish Catalysts Coming....

Published: Thu, 01/27/22

The Daily Gold
Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA


Thursday, January 27, 2021


Good Morning

Federal Reserve comments among other things pushed precious metals sharply lower on Wednesday. The pre-rate hike decline remains a possibility.

However and more importantly, the fate of the universe (economy & markets) could be shifting under the surface and towards Gold. I explain below. 

Read my article about the bullish catalysts coming

One interesting development in recent years is how Gold & Silver have been somewhat negatively correlated to inflation expectations. They have actually performed better amid falling inflation expectations, than rising inflation expectations.

I explain in the video below.

Declining Inflation Expectations & Impact on Gold & Silver


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Gold & Real Rates During Fed Rate Hikes

The fundamental driver for Gold is declining real interest rates. That's abundantly clear over 100 years of history.

However, as this chart shows (apologies for poor quality), Gold's correlation to real rates actually rises during a cycle of Fed rate hikes. One case was 2005-2006 when Gold exploded. Real rates were not falling then. Same in 2017 though the falling dollar helped Gold.

Real rates have broken out to the upside and for now Gold & Silver have held up. In any case, this info aligns with my view that the metals will rebound after the first hike (coming March 2016). 



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In TDG #762 we sketched out what we want the model portfolio to look like come spring. We put this info in a table: company name, portfolio weighting & a few comments. 

#762 is the best update since I became a subscriber, in terms of writing in detail about things that I had been thinking about all week.



Thanks for reading. I wish you all great health and prosperity in 2022 and beyond!


Disclaimer: This newsletter is intended for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized and individualized investment advice. Investment in the precious metals sector contains significant risks. You should consult with an investment advisor and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. This email may contain certain forward looking statements which are subject to risks, uncertainties and a multitude of factors that can cause results and outcomes to differ materially from those discussed herein.