200m: Why Yohan Blake will Beat Usain Bolt in London
Published: Wed, 08/08/12
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London 2012 Olympic Articles Here is a shortcut for all my latest news, analysis, videos and reports live from London! http://speedendurance.com/category/london-2012-olympics/ Be sure to bookmark this until next week. Why Blake will beat Bolt in London I am going to make a bold prediction, and that is Yohan Blake will beat Usain Bolt at the 2012 London Olympic 200 meters on Thursday night. Here is my reasoning. To calculate your 200 meter potential, “double your best 100m plus/minus 0.2 seconds” is the norm, among several other factors such as speed endurance, fitness, weather, rounds management, etc. In Usain Bolt’s best 2 performances in ‘08 & ‘09, his execution is consistent. He runs the first 100 meters 0.30 slower than his 100m SB (i.e. called speed reserve), and he usually slows down about 0.35 sec for the second half (i.e. speed endurance) This means Bolt can run 19.26 seconds (9.63 x 2) or a range anywhere from 19.06 to 19.46. Doubling your 100m time may be a neat and simple equation, but it’s really twice your speed reserve (using Bolt ‘09 = 0.34 for each 100m segment) plus your second half slowdown (0.35) that predicts your 200m time. Hence, the 2 qualities in 200m training is acceleration development for max velocity, and speed endurance. (Special endurance plays a part too, but I don’t want to confuse the issue)
(SIDENOTE: In the chart, I use 1 full second for acceleration out of the blocks, as referenced in the Valeri Borzov – Training Procedures in Sprinting article) But Yohan Blake is a different beast, and he likes being called that. Really. Why? Because his 2nd half 100 meters is the best the business, and that he barely slows down. This is a rare quality, only to be seen in the likes of Michael Johnson. Don’t forget, in Blake’s 19.26 performance, if he had the same reaction time as his 100m performance in Daegu, he would have run 19.17 and broken the WR. The chart above shows Bolt and Blake’s best 200m times and splits, when their 100m SB were 9.58 and 9.82 respectively. That’s a 0.24 second differential between the two body types and two different race execution styles. Fast forward to last Sunday night, the differential between Bolt and Blake at the London 2012 100 meters final was only 0.08 seconds! (9.63 vs 9.75) You can also say Yohan is 0.07 seconds faster than last year. I think we are going to see these two men run the first 100 about 0.30-0.35 seconds slower than their best 100m, and they will be within a 1-2 meters apart at the straightaway. Then it will be a battle down the homestretch that will determine the winner. And I’m calling Christophe Lemaitre to win a bronze, with Wallace Spearmon and Churandy Martina very close behind.
Jim Hiserman’s The Art of 400m Hurdles SpeedEndurance.com's contributing writer Jim Hiserman has published his trilogy of speed and hurdles training, with his latest book titled, Art of Long Hurdling: A Racing & Training Guide for 400mH. You can read my review here, and you can go directly to the sales page here. To read his past 17 articles on this Blog, click here which includes some sample chapters of his book.
Best of July 2012 As always, here are the best articles for July 2012. Enjoy the Games, Jimson Lee SpeedEndurance.com Interview with Mladen Jovanovic: 5 Questions 2012-07-06 04:00:00-04 This is Part 11 of the weekly “Friday Five” series where I ask 5 tough questions to world class elite coaches. To recap: Jumps coach Boo Schexnayder Dr. Mike Stone of the USOC and NBA Performance specialist Henk Kraaijenhof USA’s Dan Pfaff, now with UKA Pierre-Jean Vazel of the French National Team USATF Chair for [...] read more... Developing Acceleration: Assisted & Resisted Training Methods 2012-07-11 06:10:00-04 Let me get to the point. Sprinting good times is primarily acceleration development. Basta!. If you think you’ll get faster running cross country, well, maybe I can sell you an analog watch that tells the correct time only twice a day, or real “fake” Gucci bags. If YOUR top speed is 10 m/s and MINE [...] read more... Why are Jamaicans so Fast at Running? 2012-07-12 10:32:00-04 With a country at 14.5% unemployment, and an average annual income of $2700, you have to ask yourself why are Jamaicans so fast at running? Below is an infographic, but they left out one statistic about Jamaica, and that is the country’s average homicide rate is nearly three per day. This is alarming for a [...] read more... Interview with Dave Hegland: 5 Questions 2012-07-13 04:00:00-04 This is Part 12 of the weekly “Friday Five” series where I ask 5 tough questions to world class elite coaches. To recap: Jumps coach Boo Schexnayder Dr. Mike Stone of the USOC and NBA Performance specialist Henk Kraaijenhof USA’s Dan Pfaff, now with UKA Pierre-Jean Vazel of the French National Team USATF Chair for [...] read more... Interview with Lance Brauman, Coach of Tyson Gay 2012-07-16 04:00:00-04 This is Part 9 of a multi-part series from my recent trip to Orlando & Clermont, Florida. Part 1 was with Dennis Mitchell. Part 2 was with Brooks Johnson. Parts 3 & 5 was Hurdle Touchdown Times with Kellie Wells Training and Part 4 included Håkan Andersson. Part 6 was my interview. Part 7 was [...] read more... The Approach Run: The Technical Series 2012-07-17 04:00:00-04 This article is guest blogged by Nick Newman, M.S., a top 5 ranked British Long Jumper and has a graduate degree in Human Performance and Sport Psychology from California State University Fullerton. He is also the author of The Horizontal Jumps: Planning for Long Term Development (Volume 1) To the untrained eye it may appear [...] read more... VIDEO: How to Teach Bounding (in 4 Easy Steps) 2012-07-18 04:00:00-04 I started off my track career as a long and triple jumper, so I know how to bound. But I still feel bounding is important for my sprinters, as well as doing single leg hops (Hops and bounds are a staple in my repertoire). Why? Several reasons. One is because sometimes you don’t have access [...] read more... Dan Pfaff: Taking Athletes to the Next Level 2012-07-19 04:00:00-04 This article was written by Dan Pfaff for The Guardian. Be sure to read my interview with Dan Pfaff here in May 2012. He also wrote Alternate Methods for Developing Strength, Power and Mobility, and you can purchase his training seminar along with Tom Tellez here. Dan Pfaff: The American ‘super coach’ at the helm [...] read more... Interview with Mike Young: 5 Questions 2012-07-20 04:00:00-04 This is Part 13 of the weekly “Friday Five” series where I ask 5 tough questions to world class elite coaches. To recap: Jumps coach Boo Schexnayder Dr. Mike Stone of the USOC and NBA Performance specialist Henk Kraaijenhof USA’s Dan Pfaff, now with UKA Pierre-Jean Vazel of the French National Team USATF Chair for [...] read more... Why are Athletes Wearing Duct Tape? 2012-07-23 04:00:00-04 By now, you’ve seen enough track meets athletes on TV with what appears to be duct tape on various body parts.. lower back, upper legs, lower legs, you name it. The old days consisted of athletic tape or tensor bandages fully wrapped around the thigh for hamstring issues, or taping the ankle down completely like [...] read more... Omega Olympic Starting Blocks (& Why Usain Bolt Bought One) 2012-07-24 04:00:00-04 So you want to buy the newest Omega starting blocks that will be used in the London Olympics? Sure, anyone can buy them. It will cost you 4,800 CHF (Swiss Franc) or about $4,910 US dollars. Chump change for Usain Bolt, so he bought one. After his false start last year, everything has to be [...] read more... Botswana’s Amantle Montsho: Relax and Win 2012-07-25 04:00:00-04 A lot of people think Bud Winter’s methodologies are outdated and obsolete, but let me remind you that BOTH Stephen Francis and Glenn Mills were students of Bud Winter several decades ago. Even today, Dennis Johnson talks about him, and his training methods. The list of coaches that Bud Winter influenced is enormous. Just check [...] read more... The No False Start Rule Change 2012-07-25 13:30:00-04 Last year after Usain Bolt false started out of the 2011 WC, I predicted the IAAF would be under pressure to change the rule. And yes, it appears the rule is now changed, 3 days before the Opening ceremonies. Athletes can now to move and twitch in the starting blocks without being disqualified so long [...] read more... Dan Pfaff: Tapering for the Big Meet 2012-07-26 04:01:00-04 Today marks 10 days before the 100 meters opening round at the London Olympics. I wrote about Ben Johnson’s 10 Day Taper Before a Major Competition as well as 9 Mistakes Sprinters Make Before the Championship Meet. Here is a great interview by Tom Crick with Dan Pfaff from the September 6, 2008 edition of [...] read more... Interview with Kenta’ Bell: 5 Questions 2012-07-27 04:00:00-04 This is Part 14 of the weekly “Friday Five” series where I ask 5 tough questions to world class elite coaches. To recap: Jumps coach Boo Schexnayder Dr. Mike Stone of the USOC and NBA Performance specialist Henk Kraaijenhof USA’s Dan Pfaff, now with UKA Pierre-Jean Vazel of the French National Team USATF Chair for [...] read more... |
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